Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c131f5a30f83a826a8b192093dd11d622638f0b726d87db5ee6406cdb4dfec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 2c | 999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…5686backed No | 2c | 882.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 9c | 851.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 599.79$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 33c | 520.84$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 22c | 504.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 35c | 483$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 65c | 410$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 80c | 406.1$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 33c | 391$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 66c | 376.08$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 34c | 342.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 64c | 337$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 29c | 331$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 67c | 331$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 64c | 325$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 67c | 322$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed No | 33c | 322$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 67c | 321$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed No | 35c | 320$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed Yes | 66c | 306$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 37c | 299.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 33c | 297$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 67c | 295$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 69c | 274.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 64c | 268$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No | 33c | 258$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 33c | 245$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 34c | 243$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 78c | 230.65$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked No | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 65c | 221$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 30c | 219$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 36c | 219$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 34c | 204$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 67c | 203$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…c84abacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…4e11backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 199.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 70c | 198$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 33c | 191$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 67c | 189$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 67c | 184$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 67c | 181$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 33c | 180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 33c | 178$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 75c | 175.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 65c | 174$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 72c | 168$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 34c | 166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…45eebacked No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 70c | 155$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 33c | 152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed Yes | 71c | 150.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…03a5backed No | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 34c | 148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 67c | 143$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 67c | 142$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed Yes | 66c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 36c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 68c | 134$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 67c | 133$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 33c | 133$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 16c | 118.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 68c | 113$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 67c | 103$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…4253backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 68c | 91.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 36c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 67c | 77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 70c | 77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 67c | 77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 30c | 76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.