Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc94dc3dc6f3110cb0d45b1112b9133aa299bf03ea9e50bb2e9022a48fcf7f46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 10c | 7,654$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.36 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 3c | 6,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 4c | 5,188$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 10c | 4,952$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,591$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 6c | 2,671$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 1c | 1,808$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 4c | 1,800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…999fbacked No | 1c | 1,497$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 33c | 1,244$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.64 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed Yes | 63c | 822.62$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 80c | 799.99$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…a603backed No | 2c | 716.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 680.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 599.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 69c | 584.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 65c | 542$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 524.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 66c | 518$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 34c | 427$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed No | 5c | 422.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…5686backed No | 6c | 410.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 37c | 409.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 37c | 384$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 36c | 377$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 68c | 365$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 38c | 349.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…5ba0backed No | 5c | 343.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed Yes | 34c | 330$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed No | 8c | 305$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 66c | 300.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 10c | 299.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 66c | 299$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 36c | 293$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 36c | 286$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 65c | 277.18$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 34c | 273$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 34c | 272$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes | 33c | 263$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 62c | 261$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 64c | 254$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 66c | 254$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 34c | 248$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 57c | 246.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed Yes | 38c | 246$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 36c | 243$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 64c | 242$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked No | 64c | 242$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc666…7130backed No | 64c | 237$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 66c | 213$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 34c | 212$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 65c | 210.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…e23cbacked No | 6c | 207.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 68c | 191$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…8050backed No | 6c | 190.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked No | 64c | 190$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 29c | 190$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 71c | 190$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 67c | 189.29$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 38c | 189$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 64c | 187$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 65c | 187$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 34c | 186$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 35c | 186$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 38c | 180$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 66c | 177$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 64c | 172$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 36c | 172$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 62c | 171$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…9907backed Yes | 34c | 168$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 36c | 167$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 64c | 165$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 63c | 158.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 33c | 157$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 67c | 155$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 63c | 154$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 32c | 152$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 68c | 151$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 63c | 150.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 69c | 138$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…eb0fbacked No | 9c | 137.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 66c | 136$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 74c | 135.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 66c | 134$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 62c | 134$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 61c | 131$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 61c | 129$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed No | 67c | 127.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 71c | 124$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c9…069cbacked No | 10c | 124$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 55c | 121.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed No | 64c | 121$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.