Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x245b8156a619d5835140e1ea4a1301d0620aa0c3f172679331118d4dd8ba0407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 53c | 824$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 45c | 824$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 48c | 717$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 3c | 668$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 41c | 668$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 59c | 621$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 578.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 55c | 534$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 515.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 65c | 480$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 47c | 472$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 53c | 418$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 52c | 392$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 58c | 371$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 42c | 371$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +131%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 3c | 366.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed No | 51c | 359$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 49c | 359$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 47c | 352$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 351.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 47c | 322$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 52c | 309$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 73c | 297$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 55c | 290$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 4c | 266.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 35c | 244$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 35c | 236$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 49c | 227$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed Yes | 34c | 190.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 53c | 160$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…2937backed No | 9c | 141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…1eadbacked No | 9c | 111.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 52c | 107.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 99.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…fa0ebacked Yes | 50c | 92.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 76.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 25c | 57.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 54.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 52c | 38.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…1b6ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?this page
- Will Chip Roy be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Ezekiel Enriquez be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Heather Tessmer be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Jacques DuBose be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Jason Cahill be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Matt Okerson be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Robert Lowry be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Trey Trainor be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
- Will Weston Martinez be the Republican nominee for TX-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.