Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a782c178777aaf22dfac89c42fbebbba9cca702b57448e38d4afa272296b41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,766$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,078$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 984.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…c48dbacked Yes | 3c | 902.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 5c | 759.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 732$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 11c | 590$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed Yes | 5c | 530.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 479.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 2c | 479.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Yes | 7c | 474$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 8c | 425.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 9c | 393.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 3c | 368.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…de4ebacked Yes | 4c | 359.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 8c | 236$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 12c | 230.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +425.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…6f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 171.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…4cd8backed Yes | 11c | 167.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Yes | 8c | 139.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 23c | 126.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…893dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…b42bbacked Yes | 15c | 103.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.