Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dbdbfb6626549172c81186d4d8e174165835961a4f8962bd35ec9761aebc219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 8,205$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 10c | 3,480$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…9e7ebacked No | 12c | 2,243$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…2d5cbacked No | 11c | 1,260$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 42c | 1,059$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.96 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 62c | 1,059$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed No | 56c | 1,000$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.34 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…a8c7backed Yes | 44c | 967.47$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 36c | 916$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…4556backed No | 13c | 910.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 37c | 894$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a51cbacked No | 14c | 861.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 15cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 23c | 817.96$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 54c | 800$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 63c | 729$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 75c | 713.99$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 37c | 645$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 74c | 636.15$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf35a…6617backed Yes | 44c | 634.67$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 63c | 589$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2265…4130backed No | 14c | 586.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd5…7783backed No | 14c | 554.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 77c | 519.1$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…b42bbacked Yes | 42c | 519.03$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…6095backed Yes | 75c | 518.31$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…e1d7backed No | 12c | 504.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 51c | 477.69$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.22 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 40c | 467.67$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.61 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…c9d0backed Yes | 44c | 466.9$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d9…4c05backed No | 21c | 458.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 38c | 456$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760f…7e28backed No | 7c | 416.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…d417backed No | 15c | 400.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efb…d189backed Yes | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 64c | 398$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…f192backed No | 15c | 378.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 19c | 376.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 62c | 352.55$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 61c | 335$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.44 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdc…d7ccbacked No | 16c | 332.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 64c | 331$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…9f06backed Yes | 79c | 318.64$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 25c | 315$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 38c | 308$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 302.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 76c | 299.96$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 45c | 281.3$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.72 | 83 | 14.5%12 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 54c | 278.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 11c | 276.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 74c | 273.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 57c | 256$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 76c | 248$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 245.4$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c19…8661backed Yes | 41c | 243.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 24c | 236$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 47c | 233.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…21e4backed No | 19c | 211.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 67c | 209.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 48c | 206.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 45c | 205.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 47c | 205.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…81f0backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…bd15backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…1c24backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 39c | 198.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…27f7backed Yes | 78c | 192.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 51c | 186$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed Yes | 67c | 185.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 44c | 180$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 63c | 165$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…37fdbacked No | 19c | 157.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 80c | 156.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5962…319bbacked No | 19c | 156.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…f687backed No | 52c | 154.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…7588backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 149.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…e447backed Yes | 46c | 149.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f181backed No | 13c | 148.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 77c | 141.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 56c | 141$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…bcdebacked Yes | 79c | 136.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…2df3backed Yes | 41c | 134.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…c150backed Yes | 79c | 132$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 65c | 132$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…306dbacked No | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…cf68backed Yes | 40c | 124.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…dd1ebacked No | 46c | 120.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…d8cebacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…893dbacked Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed No | 57c | 118.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f5…1678backed Yes | 44c | 115.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a3…8414backed Yes | 41c | 114.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…97b1backed No | 62c | 110.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked No | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…0a73backed Yes | 74c | 108.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.