TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23d8…0288backed Yes52c34,775$18,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,774.095350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No37c27,941$10,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,343.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+215.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No45c23,000$10,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,279.9815150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes63c20,055$12,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,478.74378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No28c9,460$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.734729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac0…b1febacked Yes66c6,540$4,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3137…d26fbacked Yes62c6,540$4,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes62c6,139$3,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes61c4,079$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.52532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes70c3,916$2,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.781586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+82%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xaa4e…037cbacked No37c3,689$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5f…f138backed No38c3,689$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes65c3,410$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.1913625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No30c3,031$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.2116833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No30c3,000$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8955738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdc…6d9dbacked No38c2,851$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6b…2a62backed No37c2,851$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes72c2,778$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.783100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes34c2,491$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.475642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes78c2,470$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.43237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No45c2,368$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.2114729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes72c2,268$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.953246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No44c2,012$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.542114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x982e…7657backed Yes72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4801450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+95.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No45c1,802$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.978042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes47c1,731$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.992536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ccc…edb7backed Yes71c1,726$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Yes23c1,524$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No32c1,510$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.7710245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No47c1,304$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.4315431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No31c1,182$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.933743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes67c1,178$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.234333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c1,156$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.6313143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No61c1,153$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes59c1,099$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.522272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No59c1,037$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes71c1,000$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2854443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c999.99$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29031434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes29c988$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.3924861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked Yes39c974$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c972.64$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.4133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes70c945.56$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.721258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No40c929.19$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.284032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No28c899.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.743426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes22c864$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No78c858$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked No78c854$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No76c848$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.486750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes26c806.62$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.8918041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No46c789.76$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.996322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes56c785.27$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.8316544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No78c749$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.221361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes15c724.3$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.819643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes24c710$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.63066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes37c697$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb357…a4aebacked Yes65c687.8$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes41c673$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick32cpaid+162.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c666.09$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0318237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Yes20c664.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes26c634.15$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.3422848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes35c632.57$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.883630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No62c623$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.49837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes22c605$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes22c602$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.18944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No43c579.05$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.483452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No61c557.95$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd4b…d965backed No73c550$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No61c542$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.0310034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes30c539.11$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.5521033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked No63c539$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.571118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No61c470$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes74c466$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No4c460$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes39c457$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No78c455$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.91421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No41c436.62$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.084942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No59c432.16$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.051136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe05…931cbacked Yes71c431.03$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcddf…5967backed No29c431.03$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes62c420.23$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.232642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c419.83$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.4310946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No40c416.5$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.649343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x841f…bbd0backed No74c405.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No68c401.25$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.167352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed No36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes42c399.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.675750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No43c393.19$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.075547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c393$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.089035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No36c390.56$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4315232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes22c385$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes39c384$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.24650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes41c378$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.021145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No30c363.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.844940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes47c361.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.287731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.