Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8add06562a7bfd4fdd8f0a1882b5e2596540bd61c67a32359487694838f0a5

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,793 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	21,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	55	1.8%1 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-85.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x168c…d7bbbacked No	77c	4,750$3,658 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,092.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4920…3325backed Yes	19c	4,750$903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$902.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf471…be99backed Yes	30c	4,750$1,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes	1c	2,045$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.38	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	2c	1,940$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-5.0wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes	19c	1,823$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.18	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	5c	1,685$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.68	210	33.3%70 W · 140 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed Yes	13c	877$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes	2c	873.43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	48c	867.43$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.18	115	22.6%26 W · 89 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes	20c	828$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.6	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	57c	820.98$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.27	343	33.5%115 W · 228 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes	19c	771$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No	80c	709$567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.8	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.17per pick	39cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d2…6698backed Yes	13c	624$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	16cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d5…e7cabacked Yes	55c	565.07$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes	16c	554$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.64	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	23c	537.21$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.67	152	32.9%50 W · 102 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed Yes	13c	516$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes	13c	512$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.56	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…73cfbacked Yes	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes	13c	487$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.31	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes	3c	483.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	86	38.4%33 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes	3c	443.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	22cpaid	+99.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes	17c	400.13$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.7	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes	13c	378.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.18	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	11c	358$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	+15.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	23c	345.03$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.05	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes	13c	333$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed Yes	13c	327$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed Yes	15c	278$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.7	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes	16c	272$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.08	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes	16c	271$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.36	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	22c	236.96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.12	75	24%18 W · 57 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes	15c	233$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked Yes	16c	231$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes	15c	216$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…1763backed Yes	63c	200$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	228	33.8%77 W · 151 L	+13.7wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	77c	200$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.62	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No	78c	200$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.03	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	74c	168.09$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.7	211	55.9%118 W · 93 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	59c	167.77$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.58	109	46.8%51 W · 58 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes	14c	166.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f7…237dbacked Yes	62c	162.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes	15c	156$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes	10c	146.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No	47c	136.91$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.38	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes	64c	130$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.3	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No	80c	119$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes	13c	115$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed Yes	13c	108$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24dd…12afbacked Yes	20c	97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e4…6c18backed Yes	10c	95.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No	33c	92$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.64	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes	23c	89.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	62	21%13 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b49…25d8backed Yes	75c	85.17$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bb…f88abacked Yes	17c	84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0b…e28cbacked Yes	27c	83.22$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes	52c	78.67$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-5.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes	16c	73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.38per pick	29cpaid	+155.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Yes	58c	69.36$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	120	49.2%59 W · 61 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	74c	58.16$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.23	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	33c	57.88$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.94	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	71c	57.66$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.97	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x47e1…e621backed Yes	70c	53.62$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed No	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	4	75%3 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	76cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No	66c	45$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	165	44.2%73 W · 92 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No	76c	43.53$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.59	61	32.8%20 W · 41 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2121…ac65backed Yes	73c	40$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	52c	35.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes	79c	31.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed No	44c	28.34$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.75	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+115%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	64c	27.92$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.96	341	29.3%100 W · 241 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d35…9170backed Yes	77c	26.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No	47c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.78	91	47.3%43 W · 48 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e53…dcdebacked Yes	72c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes	67c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?this page
Will Brad Kohler win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Chris Madel win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Kristin Robbins win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Phil Parrish win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Scott Jensen win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event