World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 55% and 58%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff3be2ea90ba806ab46dd06836d57cef421ec1a3335b406d505fcd8e022d7604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 16c | 1,210$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 75c | 1,114$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed Yes | 21c | 1,092$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b7d3backed No | 79c | 1,058$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 16c | 1,045$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 79c | 1,016$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 16c | 1,014$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 19c | 959.96$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 26c | 869$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 16c | 858$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 821.58$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 23c | 693$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 75c | 681$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 16c | 673$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 73c | 639$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 74c | 616$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 16c | 615$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 16c | 606$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 16c | 581$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 25c | 576$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 16c | 556$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes | 16c | 534$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 25c | 525$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 74c | 515$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 16c | 508$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 25c | 505$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 16c | 501$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 25c | 497$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 26c | 442$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 27c | 430$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 16c | 425$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 13c | 421$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 11c | 419.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 16c | 412$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed No | 73c | 390.49$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 75c | 386$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 381.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 16c | 362$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 79c | 361$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 16c | 357$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed No | 74c | 354$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 22c | 332$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 78c | 326$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 16c | 311$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 16c | 292$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 25c | 292$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 75c | 292$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 16c | 291$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2f62backed No | 74c | 248.95$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 16c | 247$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 27c | 209$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 26c | 205$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 194.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…4084backed Yes | 29c | 175.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed No | 75c | 172$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 28c | 132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 16c | 116$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…e5b9backed Yes | 21c | 101.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed Yes | 19c | 87.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…ab5fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed No | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…4a53backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681c…5e31backed Yes | 37c | 41.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 39.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 55% and 58%?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be at least 72%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 58% and 60%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 60% and 62%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 62% and 64%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 64% and 66%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 66% and 68%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 70% and 72%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be less than 55%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.