World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 70% and 72%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb1c782bd15bc7613b10d4bdeaf3aac600c36960b224c81adb382e7c935d026e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,129$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.45 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…8f58backed Yes | 5c | 4,843$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9298…dd57backed Yes | 1c | 4,112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…0e9ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,340$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 27c | 2,079$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.98 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,134$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,027$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 35c | 991.31$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.36 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…92c6backed Yes | 1c | 932.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 25c | 164.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 7c | 159$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 26c | 129.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…e13bbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 76c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 70% and 72%?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be at least 72%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 55% and 58%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 58% and 60%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 60% and 62%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 62% and 64%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 64% and 66%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 66% and 68%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be less than 55%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.