Movies · resolved market
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45f70f8e0c1bb6cecc28c8bf578642486b86c5dbbaadcd8eda50e0e880dccaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 25c | 1,204$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 25c | 1,043$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 25c | 991$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 26c | 971.75$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 74c | 946$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 74c | 879$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed No | 74c | 853$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 26c | 796$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 73c | 745$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 74c | 742$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 75c | 741$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked No | 74c | 690$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 74c | 670$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 75c | 659$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 75c | 641$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…ae79backed No | 74c | 640$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 25c | 628$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 75c | 622$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 26c | 595$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 75c | 594$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 26c | 569$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 26c | 545$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 26c | 541$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 74c | 498$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 74c | 496$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 25c | 463$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 75c | 463$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 73c | 440.8$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 75c | 432$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 28c | 430$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 25c | 429$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 27c | 415$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 74c | 399$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked Yes | 26c | 382$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked Yes | 26c | 366$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 75c | 318$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 74c | 312$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 25c | 311$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 25c | 310$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 26c | 282$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 25c | 272$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 26c | 256$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 26c | 241$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 75c | 238$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 74c | 230$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 26c | 224$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 26c | 220$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 26c | 198$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 75c | 191$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 26c | 188$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 75c | 178$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 75c | 174$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 26c | 164$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 74c | 149$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 25c | 146$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 132.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 75c | 124$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 26c | 122$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked No | 74c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 56.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?this page
- Will "Bill Maher: Is Anyone Else Seeing This?" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
- Will "Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
- Will "Kumail Nanjiani: Night Thoughts" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
- Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.