Movies · resolved market
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x810328ef1f0358f03faf879ec96ce54330fd50d7e275e708bffae9fe5e355b11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 39c | 818$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 38c | 774$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 62c | 666$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked No | 38c | 541$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 62c | 511$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.18 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 61c | 451$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 79c | 422.77$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes | 61c | 196$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 66c | 192.53$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 18c | 172.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 61c | 171$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 62c | 162$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked Yes | 65c | 153.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…217abacked No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 27c | 141$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 33c | 139.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 125.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 34c | 118$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 32c | 103.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8500…3de4backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 86.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…b063backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a04…a33bbacked Yes | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 55c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 56.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 59c | 56.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…f3fbbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed Yes | 70c | 35.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 34.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…1782backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…9b90backed Yes | 67c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…b9c9backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…87babacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…1326backed No | 52c | 29.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…930abacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…641ebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?this page
- Will "Bill Maher: Is Anyone Else Seeing This?" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
- Will "Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
- Will "Kumail Nanjiani: Night Thoughts" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
- Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.