TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x290d…9e42backed No39c818$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.022045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No38c774$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.123256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes62c666$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.082030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41fb…f72ebacked No38c541$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes62c511$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.182540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes61c451$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.891625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes79c422.77$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.265151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5228528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes61c196$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes66c192.53$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.341030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No18c172.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4613130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes61c171$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.692369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+107.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes62c162$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.561580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Yes65c153.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.351225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…217abacked No26c150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No27c141$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.863132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No33c139.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No32c125.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0223130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No34c118$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.73933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No38c108$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.042250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed No32c103.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.531442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8500…3de4backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.691,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No31c96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.023745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c86.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde61…b063backed No30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a04…a33bbacked Yes69c72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No26c71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.464930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.24250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes55c61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5126641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed No17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes70c57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No30c56.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0123041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed Yes59c56.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.043925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes62c54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.521030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c86…e223backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+42.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eba…ffa3backed No40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa793…1776backed No33c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e0…f3fbbacked No32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x713d…15d0backed Yes70c35.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.53771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No46c34.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9211240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbc…1782backed Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed Yes62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0425…9b90backed Yes67c29.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c92…b9c9backed Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acb…87babacked Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c07…1326backed No52c29.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed No67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00db…930abacked Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa5…3f52backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87f…641ebacked Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes72c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.923036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.