Movies · resolved market
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ecd4f86439beff1c26d1f9cc3ed38c09269ec9dab901ef03e4697465815813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x372a…3a49backed Yes | 2c | 14,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 5c | 11,754$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Yes | 5c | 7,079$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…53c1backed Yes | 5c | 6,103$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 3c | 6,071$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Yes | 4c | 5,604$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Yes | 3c | 4,380$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…bef2backed Yes | 4c | 2,838$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,895$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,811$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,054$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.26 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d4…94ddbacked Yes | 4c | 886.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 6c | 701.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 689.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Yes | 2c | 685.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 14c | 673$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 16c | 553$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 17c | 549$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9b6abacked Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +360.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 16c | 486$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 406.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 16c | 392$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 5c | 370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 16c | 341$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 16c | 294$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719e…0a21backed Yes | 7c | 285$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 6c | 267.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…0dd8backed Yes | 14c | 221.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2647backed Yes | 11c | 176.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 8c | 174.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed Yes | 11c | 140.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Cover-Up" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Downtown Abbey: A New Era" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Goodbye June" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "The Grinch" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.