College Football · resolved market
Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d462030b9ca9b2b81b10cb55388e70d4c1e16e0bbbd22f0386891471aedd59f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 73c | 846$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 26c | 796$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 73c | 668$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 74c | 620$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 27c | 607$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 73c | 433$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 27c | 433$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 27c | 367$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 27c | 349$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 74c | 206$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 23c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…51c4backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf4…348dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?this page
- Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?Yes won
- Will Oregon and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?No won
- Will Oregon and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.