College Football · resolved market
Will Oregon and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2cf4561c355566a8a0e1374d8d28b93db34d7b4f6702a6be6292ccff2d05ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 16c | 1,183$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 14c | 696$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed Yes | 13c | 522$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 15c | 432$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 15c | 332$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 16c | 321$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 15c | 301$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 16c | 279$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 16c | 212$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 16c | 202$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…2770backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…4f52backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oregon and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?this page
- Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?Yes won
- Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?No won
- Will Oregon and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.