College Football · resolved market
Will Oregon and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e6f9ce817a20e50bb765cc0ed5eaebf550774a86a9642f21baa40d352c78aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,153$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 2,014$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.36 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 35c | 1,504$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.7 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 62c | 1,283$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 37c | 950$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 63c | 915$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 63c | 864$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 38c | 857$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed No | 62c | 689$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 37c | 661$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 62c | 652$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 38c | 651$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 63c | 575$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 38c | 569$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 38c | 525$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 38c | 506$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 38c | 505$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 62c | 457$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 62c | 454$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 62c | 444$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 38c | 444$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 412$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 62c | 412$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 62c | 369$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 38c | 351$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 37c | 320$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 62c | 308$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 38c | 301$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 37c | 255$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 62c | 214$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 38c | 214$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 197.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 62c | 194$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 175.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 37c | 153$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 63c | 149$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 37c | 148.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 38c | 148$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 137.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 38c | 121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 27c | 118.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4854…0887backed No | 67c | 115.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes | 39c | 58.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 51.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…bbb1backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 77c | 48.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…2e5bbacked No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oregon and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?this page
- Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?Yes won
- Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?No won
- Will Oregon and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.