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Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,250 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85ba…e33abacked Yes0c22,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2260%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes2c22,000$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.997736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No78c18,356$14,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,982.9124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes19c9,955$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.3325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc15a…acacbacked Yes22c9,271$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.081526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No73c8,668$6,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.1614750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes29c4,700$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.0113429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8421…37d7backed Yes20c4,030$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes36c3,944$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.794810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes24c3,763$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.511839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes5c3,740$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.625123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes20c3,500$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.610625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes8c2,547$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9115125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes21c2,218$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes22c2,141$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.39195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53d6…b6e8backed No75c2,110$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed Yes23c2,028$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.794119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c2…5a85backed Yes35c2,005$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7091421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No73c1,959$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.923644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No78c1,900$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.2315451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes30c1,856$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.763414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked No67c1,754$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.335143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No74c1,717$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.7614456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes26c1,628$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.023834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x432e…50f0backed No74c1,598$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No77c1,516$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.714147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a25…0eecbacked Yes18c1,467$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.441957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes19c1,446$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1313230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes19c1,323$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.614535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c1,294$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.5630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes22c1,229$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes22c1,229$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0213622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes10c1,208$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.761323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes19c1,203$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.521546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes18c1,200$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.495133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf477…1c28backed Yes36c1,118$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.893435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No77c1,047$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.933756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes26c1,030$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No74c1,022$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.339257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4302420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No64c983.79$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.9314355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c960.66$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No72c904.98$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.219360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No71c888.29$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.813666.7%24 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a43…5ae2backed No78c869.91$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af0…a044backed No74c850.88$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.33100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8350…1439backed Yes16c849.75$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9690%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0687…bb08backed Yes17c846.28$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No69c835.97$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes31c819.35$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes21c781.06$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.243354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1f9…4794backed Yes26c732.28$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.234723.4%11 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x610a…cb39backed Yes40c697.52$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.971546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7f…92b5backed Yes23c684.52$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abf…259cbacked Yes35c665.01$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No77c647.16$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.163161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No66c600.89$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.892040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes20c595.18$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.888615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c565.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes28c563.17$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.172540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes32c559.95$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ddb…329cbacked Yes38c525.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No75c517.35$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.146443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d70…02c5backed Yes17c516.95$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.22520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No60c512.74$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes23c500$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1258660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e9…1279backed No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c499.72$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes18c495.86$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2196…b03cbacked Yes31c493.37$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.193647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5dc…7df7backed Yes21c478.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7be3…afa3backed Yes36c476.92$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.13742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c458.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5215217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc3…d3b9backed Yes42c454.37$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No74c430.99$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.491844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes12c422.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6811647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdd…f158backed No73c406.82$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5a…747abacked Yes25c402.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d46…c336backed Yes26c383.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2a56…52b7backed Yes15c343.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc366…a4c3backed Yes8c339.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed Yes29c334.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.981414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c334.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-84.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes17c329.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8813128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed No75c327.96$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No74c323.8$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.242540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked Yes8c314.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes17c305.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.257727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed No72c304.15$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.161258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fb…6734backed Yes35c303.51$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.232860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes38c303.03$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No66c301.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.112055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a8…ec99backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Yes21c288.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6176…d580backed No80c287.26$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306c…3dbabacked Yes28c277.44$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.944042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b6…5561backed No80c261.6$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.991040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes27c260.65$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702045%9 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.