Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f340c4bffafe346def1193339528453c36bf5b1c2e75180c394578b0f97ad23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 0c | 22,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 2c | 22,000$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.99 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 78c | 18,356$14,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.91 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 9,955$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.33 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…acacbacked Yes | 22c | 9,271$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 73c | 8,668$6,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.16 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 29c | 4,700$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.01 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…37d7backed Yes | 20c | 4,030$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 36c | 3,944$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.79 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 24c | 3,763$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.5 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,740$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 20c | 3,500$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.6 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 8c | 2,547$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.91 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,218$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 22c | 2,141$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.39 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d6…b6e8backed No | 75c | 2,110$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 23c | 2,028$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.79 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed Yes | 35c | 2,005$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 73c | 1,959$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.92 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 1,900$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.23 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 1,856$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.76 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked No | 67c | 1,754$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.33 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 74c | 1,717$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.76 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 26c | 1,628$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.02 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…50f0backed No | 74c | 1,598$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 77c | 1,516$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.7 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a25…0eecbacked Yes | 18c | 1,467$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 19c | 1,446$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.13 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 19c | 1,323$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 1,294$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.56 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes | 22c | 1,229$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 1,229$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 10c | 1,208$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 19c | 1,203$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.49 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 36c | 1,118$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.89 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 77c | 1,047$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.93 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 26c | 1,030$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 74c | 1,022$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.33 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 64c | 983.79$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.93 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 960.66$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 72c | 904.98$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.21 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 71c | 888.29$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a43…5ae2backed No | 78c | 869.91$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed No | 74c | 850.88$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 16c | 849.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…bb08backed Yes | 17c | 846.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 69c | 835.97$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 31c | 819.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 21c | 781.06$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 26c | 732.28$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed Yes | 40c | 697.52$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…92b5backed Yes | 23c | 684.52$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…259cbacked Yes | 35c | 665.01$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 77c | 647.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 66c | 600.89$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 20c | 595.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 565.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 28c | 563.17$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 32c | 559.95$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…329cbacked Yes | 38c | 525.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 75c | 517.35$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…02c5backed Yes | 17c | 516.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 60c | 512.74$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.34 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…1279backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 499.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 18c | 495.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…b03cbacked Yes | 31c | 493.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…7df7backed Yes | 21c | 478.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 36c | 476.92$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 458.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…d3b9backed Yes | 42c | 454.37$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 74c | 430.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 12c | 422.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…f158backed No | 73c | 406.82$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 25c | 402.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…c336backed Yes | 26c | 383.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a56…52b7backed Yes | 15c | 343.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…a4c3backed Yes | 8c | 339.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 29c | 334.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 334.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 329.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed No | 75c | 327.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 74c | 323.8$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 8c | 314.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 17c | 305.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 72c | 304.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…6734backed Yes | 35c | 303.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 38c | 303.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 66c | 301.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…ec99backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 21c | 288.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…d580backed No | 80c | 287.26$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 28c | 277.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b6…5561backed No | 80c | 261.6$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 27c | 260.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Huliaipole by December 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.