Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8339c9cbcb447dd0f253e84411977e93ddc6e599195170da782b4792df1ca04d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dfa…dbb3backed No | 5c | 9,276$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 13c | 5,585$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed No | 1c | 5,380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…8445backed No | 1c | 4,014$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e04…1320backed No | 17c | 3,528$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 4c | 2,331$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 4c | 2,202$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…6588backed No | 14c | 1,903$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…f042backed No | 1c | 1,859$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 3c | 1,781$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…ee23backed No | 6c | 1,767$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…e57ebacked No | 17c | 1,723$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked No | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…b735backed No | 1c | 1,438$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b6…79e4backed No | 1c | 1,423$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 16c | 1,287$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked No | 8c | 1,239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…811abacked No | 5c | 1,074$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100f…5157backed No | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed No | 9c | 993.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 15c | 899.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 12c | 899.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 9c | 823.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 2c | 810.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 5c | 800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…0602backed No | 14c | 696.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed No | 15c | 661.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57b…32ddbacked No | 4c | 531.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed No | 11c | 479.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked No | 16c | 464.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked No | 13c | 444.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…3e9fbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 12c | 345$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed No | 14c | 344.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…5635backed No | 3c | 340.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 15c | 299.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 293.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba9…8920backed No | 14c | 289.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 13c | 289$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 15c | 272.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 12c | 266$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed No | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…6b97backed No | 15c | 223.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 13c | 214.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 17c | 208.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 6c | 200.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…3cc0backed No | 7c | 153.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…cd87backed No | 17c | 150.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…1bf9backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…6435backed No | 12c | 133.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…05d8backed No | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 16c | 120.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1266backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1717backed No | 18c | 112.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed No | 18c | 111.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…83dabacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…bd6abacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 14c | 100.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…4649backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…75bfbacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aca…2fb8backed No | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 13c | 82.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf7…e982backed No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Huliaipole by December 15?this page
- Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.