TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $14M committed to the Space public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,671

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2048…f572backed No23c18,201$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.459046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa920…be41backed No3c8,007$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210300%0 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9936…c1a9backed No4c2,903$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.371625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd339…0b65backed Yes60c2,880$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ac…955dbacked Yes63c2,535$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.571163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked No1c2,192$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.056314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f7…400cbacked Yes69c2,000$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6223135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c1,831$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.693283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No2c1,613$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.12442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ec…f6fabacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No2c946.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.431122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c929.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.162541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c808.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.682094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No32c797.75$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.719942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970c…7ec2backed Yes74c788.35$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.852766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+48.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No2c730$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No20c716$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x971f…160abacked No18c685.12$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No11c654.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.892377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x881d…51a4backed No2c649.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf87b…03e3backed Yes55c639.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c598.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.627663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9d…b0d6backed No4c500.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21014141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No10c499.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.512840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed No63c484.51$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.335942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…419cbacked No3c442.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c424.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c393.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.393495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes80c392$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No19c355$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes80c324$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes56c299.93$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.22441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked No31c268.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.487834.6%27 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No33c267.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7846320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc348…2a83backed No11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No7c232.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No42c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6716740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes79c190.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.152755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No8c176.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42754%3 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No18c170$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No20c167$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked Yes80c138$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c40…c6f9backed No10c129.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked No32c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes48c112.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.644438.6%17 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes39c101.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc7…40fbbacked Yes54c92.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.691457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…f712backed Yes36c86.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.173100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+385.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No34c75.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.769747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed No18c74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3400…14eebacked No24c73.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e3…a3afbacked Yes62c64.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…583bbacked Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf3a5…d8c5backed No28c52.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked No47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.291030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab5f…aef4backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x243b…5d22backed No31c48.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes36c46.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9325422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe267…86e4backed Yes54c46.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.135149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fe…4917backed No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.850%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.48127.2%22 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2444.5%2 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-92.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes55c36.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.32147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b8…799cbacked No49c34.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5114…69e2backed No53c33.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed Yes49c33.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes80c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No36c28.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes54c25.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.858643%37 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No51c25.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed No61c24.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.138521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8672…fb6fbacked Yes46c22.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d55…7925backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes57c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.52850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeddb…fa4fbacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.62937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+56.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66f6…31a4backed Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.