Token Launches · resolved market
Over $30M committed to the Space public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4a5281b7bfbe25ede315a38495a1ce769d0e42fb97287f2c8f5068c84e5d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,174$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.87 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…d43dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,767$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 8c | 3,490$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.37 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 12c | 3,195$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.92 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,455$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.25 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked Yes | 9c | 1,800$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,370$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…a0b9backed Yes | 6c | 1,213$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,161$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,096$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 12c | 845.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…cd44backed Yes | 8c | 649.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 4c | 555.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…fa58backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 11c | 491.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 11c | 479.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…0016backed Yes | 10c | 451.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 437.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…22c9backed Yes | 16c | 429.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…5976backed Yes | 9c | 399.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 370.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…9457backed Yes | 9c | 340.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 312.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 305.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 20c | 253.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…beb8backed Yes | 11c | 243.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7361…7be5backed Yes | 7c | 243.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a99abacked Yes | 8c | 227.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 8c | 223.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…2675backed Yes | 9c | 219.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 8c | 179.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…c365backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…a012backed Yes | 12c | 169.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Yes | 24c | 167.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 8c | 157.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 154.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…406abacked Yes | 15c | 68.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…e4a5backed No | 79c | 31.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $30M committed to the Space public sale?this page
- Over $12M committed to the Space public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Space public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Space public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Space public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?Yes won
- Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?No won
- Over $26M committed to the Space public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.