TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$356,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c13,192$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.231,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes23c13,114$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.3763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes4c12,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4609923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes3c10,610$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9293…108fbacked Yes1c7,284$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes20c7,159$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.5936411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4d…20cfbacked Yes2c6,222$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes3c6,000$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.56457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12054122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes23c5,948$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.615141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No51c5,684$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.231,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes39c5,478$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.356114.8%9 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes63c4,682$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,931.63838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked No58c3,599$2,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+1,075.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes42c3,318$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.1918618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes4c3,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No63c2,811$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes40c2,807$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.0976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes19c2,761$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.51944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No58c2,680$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.3856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked Yes43c2,595$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.973636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes65c2,518$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.55635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes21c2,210$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46341230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes31c2,106$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.6631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No39c2,075$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.2820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes62c2,045$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.8746521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes36c2,001$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.0559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes3c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes67c1,952$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.1119927.6%55 W · 144 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed No36c1,951$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.865228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes32c1,940$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e78backed No77c1,886$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.345641.1%23 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes55c1,833$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00021034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes37c1,800$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.1631722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x794e…5358backed Yes46c1,800$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.651936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes64c1,655$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.7416427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes42c1,634$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.4632716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8080…8a7ebacked Yes25c1,624$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.93351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x444a…07adbacked No53c1,601$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes32c1,511$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.777628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes25c1,440$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3417628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes49c1,416$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.0728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes37c1,400$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51418822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde9…1ad9backed Yes25c1,329$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.743228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes38c1,237$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.592524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c1,229$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.332,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes47c1,216$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fac…f0dcbacked Yes27c1,203$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes50c1,202$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.3617728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes4c1,130$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.487525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes67c1,115$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.0618722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes49c1,105$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.9414818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No48c1,104$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.3510857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes1c1,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.517924.6%44 W · 135 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes8c1,092$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4942719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes12c1,076$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3134127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes1c1,050$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.529227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b01…24a9backed Yes54c1,048$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.561942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed No72c1,029$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.8715921.4%34 W · 125 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0f…754bbacked Yes1c1,025$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes68c1,022$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70011556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf328…2b78backed Yes74c1,019$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes53c1,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5258724.1%21 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes25c950.38$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2634215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes41c949.54$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.5210422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd19…57d2backed Yes29c940.93$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.872722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No53c939.93$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.5712424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes55c938.87$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-83.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes27c931.04$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3812117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes41c900$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36813023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes54c800.43$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3912136.4%44 W · 77 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes35c799.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28021233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No62c788.78$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.165174.5%38 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes2c786.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15659.2%6 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes17c781.68$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes48c767.59$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7560127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes28c749.43$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.348826.1%23 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes67c743.24$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes33c718.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.461,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes50c695.46$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.453522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c684.55$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes37c651.28$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406728.4%19 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes74c632$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.687833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No68c629.98$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.654365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes34c624.28$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7410536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes25c608.29$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.071389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes20c606.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.319515.8%15 W · 80 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…d8b1backed Yes61c600$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3066630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528236.6%30 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes38c598.9$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.265111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb855…3332backed Yes25c595.32$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8390%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f02…5f35backed No43c586.51$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.661662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed26…6282backed Yes39c573.78$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.073135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes44c570.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes56c569.28$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3204420.5%9 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+65.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked No57c549.99$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9914050%70 W · 70 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No61c529.45$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.668742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.