Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710cb981a591e3a8ab6516836614e0622de705275e3b875d340c31ce132878dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $356,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 13,192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 23c | 13,114$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.37 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 4c | 12,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 3c | 10,610$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.29 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…108fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,284$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 20c | 7,159$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.59 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…20cfbacked Yes | 2c | 6,222$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 23c | 5,948$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.61 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 51c | 5,684$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,797.23 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 39c | 5,478$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.35 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 63c | 4,682$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,931.63 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…060cbacked No | 58c | 3,599$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +1,075.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 42c | 3,318$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.19 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 63c | 2,811$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.2 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 2,807$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.09 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes | 19c | 2,761$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 58c | 2,680$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.38 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 43c | 2,595$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.97 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 65c | 2,518$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 21c | 2,210$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 31c | 2,106$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.66 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 39c | 2,075$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.28 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 62c | 2,045$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.87 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,001$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.05 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 67c | 1,952$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.11 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed No | 36c | 1,951$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.86 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 32c | 1,940$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed No | 77c | 1,886$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.34 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 55c | 1,833$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 37c | 1,800$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.16 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…5358backed Yes | 46c | 1,800$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 64c | 1,655$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.74 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 42c | 1,634$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.46 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,624$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444a…07adbacked No | 53c | 1,601$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 32c | 1,511$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.77 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 25c | 1,440$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.34 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,416$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.07 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,400$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…1ad9backed Yes | 25c | 1,329$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.74 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes | 38c | 1,237$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 1,229$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.33 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes | 47c | 1,216$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…f0dcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,203$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 50c | 1,202$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.36 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 67c | 1,115$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.06 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 49c | 1,105$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.94 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 48c | 1,104$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.35 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 8c | 1,092$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 12c | 1,076$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…24a9backed Yes | 54c | 1,048$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed No | 72c | 1,029$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.87 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…754bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,025$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 68c | 1,022$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 74c | 1,019$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 25c | 950.38$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.26 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 949.54$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.52 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…57d2backed Yes | 29c | 940.93$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.87 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 53c | 939.93$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.57 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes | 55c | 938.87$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 27c | 931.04$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.38 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 41c | 900$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 54c | 800.43$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.39 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 799.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 62c | 788.78$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.16 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 2c | 786.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 17c | 781.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 48c | 767.59$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.75 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 28c | 749.43$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.34 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 67c | 743.24$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 33c | 718.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.46 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 50c | 695.46$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.4 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 684.55$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.29 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 37c | 651.28$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…e075backed Yes | 74c | 632$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.68 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked No | 68c | 629.98$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.65 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 624.28$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 25c | 608.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 20c | 606.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…d8b1backed Yes | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 38c | 598.9$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…3332backed Yes | 25c | 595.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…5f35backed No | 43c | 586.51$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Yes | 39c | 573.78$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 44c | 570.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 56c | 569.28$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 57c | 549.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.99 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 61c | 529.45$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.66 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.