Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f525c4845d9acaf37eaa8039416eda54726e1c644de750dfc68ae44d0b14f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33df…337dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,606$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 20,407$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.19 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 17,131$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 13,659$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 10,145$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 3c | 8,670$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.52 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 6,249$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.55 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…20cfbacked Yes | 2c | 6,222$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 13c | 5,866$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.84 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,493$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 4,295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,904$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,543$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.2 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 75c | 3,231$2,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.84 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…573cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,159$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 34c | 3,137$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.07 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 1c | 2,811$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,807$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,440$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 2,286$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,262$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.32 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 71c | 2,000$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.2 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 69c | 1,947$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.78 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…5358backed Yes | 24c | 1,800$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.01 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 30c | 1,772$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 3c | 1,680$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 69c | 1,599$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.43 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed No | 73c | 1,506$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.13 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed Yes | 5c | 1,407$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,400$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.08 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…cfa7backed Yes | 2c | 1,396$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 10c | 1,396$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 28c | 1,368$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.4 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 12c | 1,312$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 24c | 1,290$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.95 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,229$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 1,160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,100$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 33c | 999.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 7c | 975.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 4c | 944.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 28c | 919.96$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 18c | 916.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 29c | 904.23$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.02 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 891.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.29 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes | 23c | 875.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 28c | 820$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes | 29c | 818.9$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 34c | 799.56$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.51 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 75c | 713$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.25 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 33c | 706.36$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 12c | 705.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes | 35c | 700$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 699.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 675.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 20c | 673.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 30c | 669.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…659bbacked Yes | 2c | 658.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…0774backed Yes | 2c | 630.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 6c | 608.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 28c | 608.28$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.32 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 31c | 599.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 32c | 583.5$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 30c | 583.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 26c | 570.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 73c | 548.25$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 546.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 25c | 515.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…45edbacked Yes | 3c | 500.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 22c | 499.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 25c | 468.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 449.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…70e2backed Yes | 7c | 444.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes | 6c | 436.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 15c | 399.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…0661backed Yes | 31c | 387.45$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 320.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 35c | 316.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 33c | 299.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 5c | 290$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc562…b5c9backed Yes | 25c | 270$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 9c | 269.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccb…1bd2backed Yes | 28c | 260$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 18c | 250.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 8c | 250.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.