Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10189e03c1b2dc210e2bbf9c0eb32dd3d53325275f9ce676952335e9cb9ba50f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $270,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 0c | 96,522$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.29 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,734$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…573cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 0c | 4,752$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,368$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 2,348$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,306$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,138$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 7.6%11 W · 134 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…1fcebacked Yes | 1c | 2,110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f4…0817backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…2d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,615$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…0741backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…4fd4backed Yes | 1c | 1,374$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 996.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 2c | 620.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 2c | 599.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 2c | 577$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.