Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bf8a04736dae5fd7061fd2e655767bdffa59d8dda46db1fdc3910b486bb97e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $699,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $713,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $699,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 0c | 56,666$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 35,437$7,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,421.68 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 42c | 17,419$7,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,387.09 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 17,009$4,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,847.14 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 23c | 16,386$3,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,754.78 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 14,742$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,093.09 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 2c | 14,583$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.63 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 11,735$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,413.23 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 73c | 9,786$7,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 24c | 9,237$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,003.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 8c | 9,216$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.62 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 73c | 8,782$6,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.95 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 8,123$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,063.95 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 15c | 7,787$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,647.02 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 10c | 7,667$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,906.98 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 53c | 7,349$3,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.08 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 14c | 6,513$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.69 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 46c | 5,967$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,193.6 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 35c | 5,710$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.46 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 66c | 5,490$3,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.67 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,077$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,606.94 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed No | 62c | 4,859$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed No | 0c | 4,461$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…573cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,407$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,875.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…060cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,527$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +1,075.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 73c | 3,430$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.14 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 37c | 3,094$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.87 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 29c | 2,861$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.72 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 2,837$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.92 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,790$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.47 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 72c | 2,752$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.68 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…db9bbacked Yes | 75c | 2,643$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 70c | 2,567$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 71c | 2,471$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.83 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,440$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.59 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 36c | 2,382$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.17 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 29c | 2,332$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.16 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…5358backed Yes | 43c | 2,300$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 30c | 2,266$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.15 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 32c | 2,207$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.84 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 9c | 2,196$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.42 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked No | 66c | 2,107$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 55c | 2,079$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.78 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…802cbacked Yes | 74c | 2,013$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…e075backed Yes | 66c | 2,008$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.68 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…ed13backed Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.98 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.95 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 63c | 1,907$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.65 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,840$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.08 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,764$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.92 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 77c | 1,693$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.98 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…bad8backed Yes | 6c | 1,679$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes | 77c | 1,666$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 17c | 1,624$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.33 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,579$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.35 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 1,542$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.57 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24af…17ddbacked No | 24c | 1,500$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.42 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 36c | 1,450$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.82 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 69c | 1,440$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.19 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 1,425$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 77c | 1,406$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.82 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 6c | 1,400$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 1,400$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.9 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,400$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.44 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…b9cbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,342$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,328$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.11 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…ffc9backed No | 65c | 1,320$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.67 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed Yes | 79c | 1,318$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed No | 69c | 1,309$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.55 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 17c | 1,305$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.82 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…a3a6backed No | 63c | 1,291$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 56c | 1,290$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 1,237$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x444a…07adbacked No | 73c | 1,231$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked No | 73c | 1,220$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.9 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 44c | 1,160$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.93 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 42c | 1,128$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.82 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 59c | 1,097$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.19 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,088$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.11 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 75c | 1,083$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.51 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 78c | 1,080$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.92 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,076$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.52 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 9c | 1,043$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.25 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,038$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.54 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 75c | 1,028$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.88 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 31c | 1,022$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.23 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,018$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.24 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…f57ebacked No | 61c | 999.99$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.89 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6caf…2799backed No | 4c | 982.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…0940backed Yes | 10c | 970.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 946.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.43 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 6c | 920.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…5815backed No | 42c | 919.97$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.37 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 40c | 905.29$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.57 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…664abacked Yes | 30c | 893.35$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.