TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$699,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$713,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $699,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16bd…e288backed No0c56,666$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.893112.9%4 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick18cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes20c35,437$7,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,421.681,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No42c17,419$7,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,387.096457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes24c17,009$4,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,847.1459927%162 W · 437 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No23c16,386$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,754.786141%25 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+132.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c14,742$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,093.0987618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No2c14,583$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.631389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes11c11,735$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,413.2387917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes73c9,786$7,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes24c9,237$2,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,003.531553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No8c9,216$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.6245511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed Yes73c8,782$6,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.953823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes13c8,123$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,063.9563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes15c7,787$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,647.028719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes10c7,667$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,906.9815819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes53c7,349$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.086114.8%9 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes14c6,513$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,618.69838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes46c5,967$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,193.620735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes35c5,710$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,710.4616427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes66c5,490$3,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.6718618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes9c5,077$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.9426211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed No62c4,859$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.55141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed No0c4,461$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7719726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c9…573cbacked Yes12c4,407$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.57812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Yes11c3,527$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,134.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+1,075.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes73c3,430$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.1421213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes37c3,094$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.8718722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No29c2,861$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.7218123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c2,837$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.921,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes66c2,790$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.478724.1%21 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes72c2,752$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.6810824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c2…db9bbacked Yes75c2,643$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6611560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+62.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No70c2,567$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes19c2,500$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.995635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No71c2,471$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.8356329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes54c2,440$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.5959225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes36c2,382$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.1717728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes29c2,332$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.1611556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x794e…5358backed Yes43c2,300$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.221936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes30c2,266$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.156728.4%19 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes32c2,207$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.847634.2%26 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes9c2,196$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.42808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c2…c7aebacked No66c2,107$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.361323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes55c2,079$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.7853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb546…802cbacked Yes74c2,013$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+82.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes66c2,008$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.687833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ce…ed13backed Yes76c2,000$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.9814025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes7c2,000$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.9524115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No63c1,907$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.6554274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes78c1,840$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.085448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c1,764$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.922,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes77c1,693$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.9817919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc1…bad8backed Yes6c1,679$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.791643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+100.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes77c1,666$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.591323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid-55.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes17c1,624$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.3332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes22c1,579$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.3514928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes8c1,542$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.5734215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24af…17ddbacked No24c1,500$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.03875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes8c1,500$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.421,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes36c1,450$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.8246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes69c1,440$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1917628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes7c1,425$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.341717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes77c1,406$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.8214137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked No6c1,400$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.618631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes35c1,400$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.921233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes6c1,400$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.4418822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c8…b9cbbacked Yes10c1,342$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.15825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes16c1,328$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.1138828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x074b…ffc9backed No65c1,320$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.673754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de4…9f53backed Yes79c1,318$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.799746.4%45 W · 52 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed No69c1,309$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.554944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes17c1,305$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.8233231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x740f…a3a6backed No63c1,291$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No56c1,290$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.991560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No8c1,237$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.548915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x444a…07adbacked No73c1,231$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked No73c1,220$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.33812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-83.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes36c1,200$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.957222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes44c1,160$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.934526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes42c1,128$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.8211339.8%45 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked No59c1,097$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.194936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes28c1,088$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.1113116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes75c1,083$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.515174.5%38 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes78c1,080$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.927132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes10c1,076$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.524420.5%9 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+65.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes9c1,043$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.258236.6%30 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes10c1,038$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.5410818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No75c1,028$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.8816056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked No31c1,022$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.23234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-93.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes11c1,018$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.244425%11 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes5c1,000$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9552859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9532…f57ebacked No61c999.99$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.894641.3%19 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6caf…2799backed No4c982.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d9…0940backed Yes10c970.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.961136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c946.3$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.436915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes6c920.6$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.63930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9901…5815backed No42c919.97$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.374531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes40c905.29$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5720129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f72…664abacked Yes30c893.35$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.351741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.