TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c22,500$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16745511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes4c21,967$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.261,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c17,889$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.89380%0 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes0c17,356$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.921389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes5c7,600$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.817126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4d…20cfbacked Yes1c6,222$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes1c4,659$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes0c3,650$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.712424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.391,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb9…5d3fbacked Yes3c3,196$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.31540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes9c3,100$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Yes12c3,081$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+1,075.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3336411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes1c2,807$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes3c2,440$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5459225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c5b…1ab3backed Yes1c2,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9d…5954backed Yes2c1,700$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c1,633$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.641,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes12c1,500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18524115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes11c1,498$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.675111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes18c1,400$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25318822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes13c1,256$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3560127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c1,117$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.061,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes11c1,050$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4134215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes7c1,013$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1413023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes6c999.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558724.1%21 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes9c944.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes13c900$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510114.9%15 W · 86 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+47.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes10c798.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2914025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes2c769.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0243126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes13c753.12$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6526211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25e…f9c0backed Yes7c714$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.984822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes15c705.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes15c646.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c610.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.236915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes13c576.92$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes9c563.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9324710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes7c499.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x794e…5358backed Yes15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes3c499.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.314818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c9…573cbacked Yes21c473.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c435.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.174916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c402.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.092,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes16c380.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.79808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes10c343.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3922718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes7c319.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.897533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c314.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8352619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c303.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes14c285.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4348…ac28backed Yes7c279.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-86.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccd…d5c2backed Yes13c243.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6386…c6f1backed Yes11c226.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…0c0fbacked Yes14c220.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+128.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes13c217.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb80…34c6backed Yes12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306224.2%15 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035212.8%45 W · 307 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207634.2%26 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes13c175.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes12c174.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.54639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes12c154.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5530110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes14c147.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes10c124.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1333415.6%52 W · 282 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes11c120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+169.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1b…e0d6backed Yes11c108.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes12c105.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes13c101$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1311017.3%19 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0151…3691backed Yes12c100.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0211328.3%32 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da8…4dd2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+452.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1432716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0253…58d3backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1d…8721backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x868a…61a6backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1373215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa1…aafabacked Yes13c98.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd18…4783backed Yes16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…ce73backed Yes19c68.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.248831.8%28 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188f…e789backed Yes17c64.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dee…1b18backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.