Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59e3dd27f971fb645f193a87054e984856e878f12dbd34400e087d2edfb8564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,643 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61bc…6d0bbacked Yes | 16c | 56,544$8,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,983.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 0c | 14,298$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 10c | 5,506$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.02 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 1c | 4,367$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed Yes | 24c | 4,116$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 15c | 3,713$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.25 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 64c | 2,444$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.83 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 2,424$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,050$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,735$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 11c | 1,620$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…5f56backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,404$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 1,394$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.29 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…02e7backed Yes | 29c | 1,214$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…0531backed Yes | 28c | 902$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 73c | 893.74$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.74 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 20c | 822$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 77c | 603.85$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 65c | 599.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 596.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…e4f5backed Yes | 4c | 585.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 584.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 11c | 571.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 29c | 476.34$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 19c | 380$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…24ffbacked Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…57a6backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…1fedbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8962…4812backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…5d17backed No | 78c | 191$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cc…78a9backed Yes | 34c | 173.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 77c | 148.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…10aebacked Yes | 36c | 137.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…d5cdbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 121.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…a2c4backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 30c | 96.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…3eccbacked Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…4aecbacked No | 72c | 50.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…c15dbacked No | 72c | 37.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…751dbacked Yes | 31c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…68f4backed Yes | 31c | 34.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…61abbacked No | 71c | 32.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.