Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1c9b105f9c5f7fa055c8556488d155d2c393af7b7aa1f32f6412a49420cfe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,603 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 1c | 41,274$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Yes | 57c | 23,364$13,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,408.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 48c | 12,843$6,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,108.57 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 4c | 11,868$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,451.8 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed No | 24c | 7,100$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,394.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 8c | 6,070$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.4 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…3a0abacked No | 67c | 4,192$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.13 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…a644backed Yes | 75c | 4,000$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 30c | 3,512$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.29 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 42c | 3,149$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.68 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 44c | 2,564$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.78 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed Yes | 51c | 1,580$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,481$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…dc45backed Yes | 78c | 1,279$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed No | 28c | 1,262$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.96 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 48c | 1,136$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.01 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed Yes | 39c | 1,119$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 1,081$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.39 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked No | 60c | 998$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 51c | 883.08$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.57 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…571cbacked Yes | 4c | 858.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 6c | 791.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 52c | 715.37$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.46 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 63c | 700$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 541.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 541.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…0f80backed Yes | 20c | 490.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…eee7backed No | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 51c | 445.31$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed Yes | 62c | 440$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 10c | 408$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 380.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…e4f5backed Yes | 10c | 352.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 55c | 310$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9a…b2ffbacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…c090backed Yes | 38c | 287.11$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 5c | 282.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57a…4dbbbacked Yes | 11c | 250.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…0b22backed Yes | 40c | 248.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…5d17backed No | 68c | 233$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…d59cbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…0555backed Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…787bbacked Yes | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…30cabacked Yes | 17c | 136.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b647backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…8962backed No | 63c | 105.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 68.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes | 64c | 67.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb372…2048backed No | 46c | 61.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…b051backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 45c | 50.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…4aecbacked No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…b9f4backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…317dbacked No | 76c | 39.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…9523backed Yes | 49c | 37.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e2…38eebacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…afa2backed Yes | 56c | 32.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…058dbacked No | 75c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…ee2dbacked Yes | 62c | 31.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…a5d2backed Yes | 74c | 25.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb183…7d81backed No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…780bbacked No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.