Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86165d3801a73a1d9aa9114647dddc26c3680bd08223aed664f702cb1761ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,620 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 10,267$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 2c | 8,181$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 6,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,481$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 5c | 4,694$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.32 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf57…77c7backed Yes | 0c | 4,318$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,293$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,928$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,467$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 4c | 1,309$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 3c | 800.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 525.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 3c | 480.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…1fedbacked Yes | 10c | 207.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.