TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,357 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x965d…3a0abacked Yes26c19,210$4,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.861681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick60cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes42c18,094$7,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,630.187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa701…47cdbacked No66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,400785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes27c7,144$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.247721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+76.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes54c4,000$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.9280%0 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes33c2,735$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.644721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7758…7125backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes46c1,928$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8812231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes29c1,917$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.2440643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed No55c1,820$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8191172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes28c1,608$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.112129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes61c1,431$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.2134848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19e…a8bbbacked Yes50c1,251$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc5…b83abacked Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes17c821.15$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.933998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes57c796.76$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.9914340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No64c718.49$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.243531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba89…0fefbacked Yes13c700$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes25c627.53$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3631523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes39c559.12$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52a0…eee7backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+61.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes19c423$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.952218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes35c414.52$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.954862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe5…a37bbacked Yes55c387.64$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.21450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa692…fbafbacked Yes33c380.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd173…abfbbacked No42c363$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x956a…2995backed No56c332$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabb…878dbacked No56c326$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes39c320$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.29427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…f067backed Yes44c311$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd25…1712backed No56c308$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1475756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No67c282.85$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8521651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd54…edadbacked No56c271$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeace…5d17backed No60c267.67$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.361764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c253.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.756785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94b…4dbfbacked Yes58c252$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x096d…9b60backed Yes44c247$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3a…ad6dbacked No56c246$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc016…a5a8backed No42c238$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93d…500cbacked Yes13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes20c227$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.42718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…c8b2backed Yes40c226.26$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x854b…1a19backed No58c219.25$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9a…5932backed No55c211$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b22…2dc6backed No56c205$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb92…0affbacked Yes44c201$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb673…0555backed Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662030%6 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bd…b051backed Yes14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b89…e61dbacked No55c199$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b13…a4dfbacked Yes44c198$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes15c197.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd43…0699backed Yes22c195$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.92853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1870…6974backed Yes44c195$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb34c…d906backed Yes58c195$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3f…40b9backed Yes44c190$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b2…713ebacked Yes44c190$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb445…c072backed No56c187$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c5…8859backed No55c179$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4a7…d389backed No40c177$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.081338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa396…cb18backed Yes44c177$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2272…1419backed No55c176$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddea…eee9backed No55c170$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda8b…7566backed No55c167$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17f…7cd0backed Yes44c166$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…f266backed Yes35c161.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3890…41a7backed Yes58c154$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…7b4ebacked No66c151.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked Yes42c150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.518162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.53330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8cce…cd7cbacked No55c149$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd984…18dfbacked Yes35c141.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5765…ee85backed No53c139.12$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.64318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…a465backed Yes42c119.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb9c…317dbacked No76c119.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa56d…3053backed Yes54c103.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4616729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8e9…0dc9backed Yes19c94.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…428abacked Yes45c94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.33663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8b3dbacked Yes37c81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b7…7933backed Yes14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x475a…8655backed No54c75.79$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes19c75.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.048235.4%29 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x807d…76dcbacked Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked No78c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.452657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227d…1a26backed No56c71.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.679063.3%57 W · 33 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked No78c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.42653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc15…cc49backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17b…04cbbacked Yes37c58.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.561428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked No53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a3b…4aecbacked No61c55.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf35b…8043backed Yes39c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4553…f1a5backed Yes19c51.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c50.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.142931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes23c50.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562015%3 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-73.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef39…423bbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.