Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e03b9168f7e755d5552b3b7555234e810dcf74083590ac71816bea128a2504c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 2c | 18,481$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.56 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed Yes | 59c | 9,240$5,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,824.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 4c | 7,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed No | 19c | 6,000$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 52c | 5,846$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.34 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 55c | 3,492$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.45 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 41c | 1,982$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.37 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked No | 9c | 1,203$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 46c | 732.65$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.04 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd6…4735backed Yes | 77c | 600.48$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed No | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 44c | 533$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 46c | 514.56$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 57c | 504.36$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 16c | 301.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 56c | 295$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a7…d389backed No | 43c | 249$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 233.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 41c | 229.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…5d17backed No | 57c | 210$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…37d5backed No | 41c | 121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 45c | 117.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…4aecbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 38c | 48.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…058dbacked No | 60c | 42.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…9d32backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2597…239bbacked No | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…19a4backed No | 53c | 22.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…b9f4backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.