Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81bf7f3e7a992a961a3c45689977616dffe00053a0e8817b2c53e9176fa15fd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7758…7125backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 6c | 9,839$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.45 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 7c | 7,590$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.76 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 5,038$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 9c | 4,679$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.09 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 6c | 4,533$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.77 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 21c | 4,256$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.12 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 2,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,909$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,447$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34c…f40cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,364$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 6c | 1,010$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 10c | 856.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 850$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 819.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…292fbacked Yes | 3c | 752.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 3c | 696.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 5c | 648.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…8a73backed Yes | 24c | 619.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 6c | 598.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 577.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 5c | 530.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 4c | 470$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…9116backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 319.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 7c | 279.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 249.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 202.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…4aecbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 187.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…e4f5backed Yes | 13c | 115.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…2493backed Yes | 23c | 110.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6803…8cd4backed Yes | 23c | 97.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 94.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…b9f4backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 53c | 33.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…df7ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…5d17backed No | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a50…869fbacked No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.