Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd117fbd931afbfb392e867883c487cc8024003a2f87b31aeb090d293525b769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 5,522$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 4c | 4,991$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,776$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.71 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 26c | 2,756$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.53 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,339$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a62…4f8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,978$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,679$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,011$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 948.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…0603backed Yes | 2c | 681.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 5c | 653.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 5c | 625.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 64c | 601.54$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.83 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 534$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…2f59backed Yes | 2c | 525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…3eccbacked Yes | 6c | 290.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 195.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…74adbacked Yes | 21c | 151.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed No | 64c | 107.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebd…47bcbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…a1d7backed No | 64c | 103.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…9e4ebacked No | 64c | 78.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…1080backed No | 64c | 75.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…4d74backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…7fc0backed No | 64c | 68.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b713backed No | 64c | 66.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…85babacked No | 64c | 62.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0311…2156backed No | 64c | 61.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…7ba0backed No | 71c | 56.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…0af5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…b924backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8016…03bdbacked No | 65c | 46.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…41d0backed Yes | 33c | 39.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…be77backed No | 64c | 31.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…a1e4backed No | 64c | 29.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…d821backed No | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 79c | 25.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878e…b719backed No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…3e07backed No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d0…54bfbacked No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102a…0bb7backed No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…175ebacked No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e9…e010backed No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec03…cb71backed No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…7a8dbacked No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…d587backed No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ce…c8dabacked No | 64c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be3…c0d4backed No | 64c | 22.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…9aa3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…a0eebacked No | 64c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c05…2ea8backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…5e1dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.70 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.50 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.