Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc85a959ead0bc40e35d3ca9a8ad5717261632b0dcc389185ed8962b6192daaff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf91…a4c8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c05…2ea8backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 80c | 3,306$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,638.3 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 20c | 1,705$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.74 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 57c | 1,210$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.25 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 41c | 723.74$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.74 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 18c | 557.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.22 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 475.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.94 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…eac8backed Yes | 37c | 396.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 60c | 259.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 252.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 62c | 250$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…0603backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 32c | 229.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…6cafbacked Yes | 46c | 161.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 54c | 79.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 76c | 36.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…d5f8backed No | 69c | 35.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f24…fd18backed No | 80c | 25.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.70 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.50 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.