Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.50 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbffa4b0edbc1e69898c1c2735a4fba252c9ad3df8262280beeef715a9286c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc72…7193backed Yes | 13c | 7,748$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…eac8backed No | 75c | 6,598$4,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…8d1bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,484$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 78c | 1,351$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 8c | 1,253$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 39c | 1,191$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.98 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,095$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.09 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 4c | 957.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 6c | 935.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 800$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 758.29$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 721.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 32c | 605.82$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 37c | 500$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 36c | 473.36$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…f46fbacked Yes | 79c | 465.86$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…3eccbacked Yes | 8c | 442.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 73c | 420$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…51a5backed Yes | 19c | 375.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 354.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bc…ff29backed Yes | 6c | 259.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 135.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…a3ffbacked Yes | 10c | 125.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 75c | 122.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 57c | 121.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 106.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 78c | 98.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…77f0backed No | 58c | 54.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2486…e365backed No | 75c | 52.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a7…d389backed No | 74c | 50.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…5e1dbacked No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…e1a5backed No | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf5…9aa3backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.50 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.70 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.