Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b73c757bd60caacb7f97e832f930f056902f705baa7f69c6be3cb7c3aa76074

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,352,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,300,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,352,938 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 622 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	12c	75,123$9,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,024.86	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	68,363$2,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,788.99	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	13c	39,663$5,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,164.8	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	35,649$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.48	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	35,000$2,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,285	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	0c	26,392$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	6c	25,088$1,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.65	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	25,059$892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$891.69	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	31c	22,082$6,831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,830.82	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	26c	21,853$5,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,621.51	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	4c	20,133$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.42	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	19,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	20c	19,001$3,763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,762.51	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	25c	18,660$4,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,644.82	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	3c	17,465$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.77	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	4c	17,232$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.36	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	17c	16,747$2,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,815.34	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	15c	16,302$2,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,413.54	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	14,804$2,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,010.95	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	14,099$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.94	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	3c	13,777$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.74	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	13,772$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.18	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	25c	13,068$3,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,244.3	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	8c	12,937$1,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,022.33	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	40c	11,797$4,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,738.39	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	11,786$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.9	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5f…7c46backed Yes	0c	11,746$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	6c	11,372$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.1	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	10,767$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.79	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7256…7432backed Yes	0c	10,545$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	36c	10,522$3,759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,758.78	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaaa…0ffabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	9,900$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	9,805$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	1c	9,468$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.91	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	8,703$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.8	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	10c	8,501$878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.82	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	1c	8,428$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.4	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	10c	8,306$859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.25	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,860$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.76	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	9c	7,703$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.24	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	3c	7,523$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.56	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814c…0b46backed Yes	8c	7,247$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	4c	7,209$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.7	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	19c	6,946$1,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,299.23	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	6,617$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	6,527$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.33	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2537…78c5backed Yes	0c	6,346$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,215$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.13	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	25c	6,135$1,549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,549.22	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	6,000$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.48	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	5,867$4,616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250.66	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	10c	5,638$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.05	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	20c	5,500$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124.35	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,490$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	5,366$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.39	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	5,002$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	23c	4,829$1,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,134.17	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	4,568$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.48	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	3c	4,464$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.31	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes	2c	4,406$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.6	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	3c	4,400$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.8	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	4,339$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.81	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	3c	4,322$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	16c	4,134$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.4	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	27c	4,110$1,114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.34	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	18c	4,060$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739.93	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	4,003$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.52	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0545…02a0backed Yes	4c	3,924$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.14	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	3,911$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.03	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	3,903$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	3,832$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	3,749$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.32	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Yes	14c	3,715$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.96	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	3,543$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.01	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	8c	3,438$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.91	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes	11c	3,409$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.06	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	10c	3,380$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.7	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	5c	3,369$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.75	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	24c	3,323$794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.59	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes	10c	3,097$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	243	26.7%65 W · 178 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,083$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	5c	3,053$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	3c	3,014$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.42	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	8c	3,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.97	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	24c	3,000$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.5	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	3,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	2c	2,914$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	14c	2,858$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	9c	2,852$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.33	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	8c	2,752$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.72	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe14b…4acabacked Yes	2c	2,719$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…ccb6backed Yes	22c	2,607$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.66	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	8c	2,598$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked No	72c	2,547$1,846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$701.92	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event