Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd563950c7ac6ffbda2aa05a47c2e5030569f134e8d1ddac35be51d58ad4f26f6

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $255,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,577 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…dbccbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…75c3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0215…35aabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf95b…75c4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd7…1428backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ad…f86abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	5,500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.1	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	4,839$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.01	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	3,573$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.28	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	2,650$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,479$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08d4…2293backed Yes	1c	2,410$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,170$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,122$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	2,042$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602e…e237backed Yes	1c	2,036$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	1,840$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.72	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,636$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	2c	1,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	1c	1,304$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6a…ab66backed Yes	2c	1,300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,023$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…c5cdbacked Yes	2c	866.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes	1c	779.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe5…7f8cbacked Yes	2c	659.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event