Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90f39d21d57876047c75f87431c2b6c5635447e17e9c6d8552fd7b7f1ec00a48

Rebuilt 41 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,165,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $736,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,165,701 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	40,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	21c	33,846$7,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,167.99	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	11c	20,000$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	1c	18,946$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	13c	17,968$2,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,302.79	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	16,739$2,486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,485.81	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	16,054$1,854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,853.77	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	13,322$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728.38	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	13c	12,800$1,688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,687.63	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	10,620$2,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,327.95	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	20c	10,260$2,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,011.17	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	21c	9,198$1,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,961.06	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	7,714$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	13c	7,684$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.92	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2537…78c5backed Yes	1c	7,020$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.89	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	5c	6,393$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.46	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	22c	5,917$1,312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,312.01	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	12c	5,761$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.86	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	1c	5,613$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.65	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	22c	5,584$1,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,205.21	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	16c	4,937$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.71	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	4,777$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.04	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	4,500$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.7	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	4,495$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	2c	4,350$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	74c	4,062$3,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,056.67	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Yes	1c	3,828$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.1	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,708$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.74	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	28c	3,661$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,027.12	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9a…0793backed Yes	1c	3,300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,254$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe324…cd1ebacked Yes	1c	3,103$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	25c	3,100$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.55	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	17c	3,046$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.98	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	11c	3,000$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	23c	2,822$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.39	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	0c	2,653$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744f…d927backed Yes	24c	2,595$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	2,590$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.35	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	20c	2,500$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.02	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96b5…5124backed Yes	1c	2,463$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,453$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.37	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	19c	2,432$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.98	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	17c	2,403$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.66	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No	78c	2,400$1,872 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	72cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	9c	2,310$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.63	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	15c	2,310$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.54	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	30c	2,305$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	9c	2,245$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	2,219$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.66	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	4c	2,180$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.22	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	26c	2,173$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,168$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,167$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.66	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	23c	2,144$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.39	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	23c	2,140$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.62	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	10c	2,091$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.39	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	5c	2,071$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.03	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	2,061$1,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.25	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95d2…1ecabacked Yes	2c	2,040$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+166.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce15…bf9dbacked Yes	23c	2,037$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.84	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes	3c	2,032$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	2,030$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.11	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	23c	2,000$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	6c	1,950$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.7	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101d…6615backed Yes	3c	1,944$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	19c	1,942$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.4	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes	26c	1,938$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,934$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.34	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	1,872$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.85	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22f…6d67backed Yes	2c	1,835$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94d3…f376backed Yes	22c	1,820$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.87	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	39cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	1,796$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.3	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	1c	1,752$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	10c	1,745$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	3c	1,675$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.91	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	1,639$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	14c	1,588$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.63	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	2c	1,578$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	10c	1,529$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.09	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe74e…f676backed Yes	2c	1,509$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	35c	1,504$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.95	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	12c	1,496$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.18	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,495$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.76	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d96…0c7fbacked Yes	25c	1,481$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.47	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e8…c88bbacked Yes	14c	1,419$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.15	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	14c	1,400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.62	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,367$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,336$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	1,324$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,316$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	19c	1,300$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.43	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	34c	1,293$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.26	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No	75c	1,287$971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.1	29	75.9%22 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	2c	1,200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…0430backed Yes	5c	1,187$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.68	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes	1c	1,173$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event