Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa78c82386283dc8c00fd60120f2d4dd19b30ecd65194d8ad8613f193d92cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 0c | 25,173$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 0c | 20,307$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 4c | 10,168$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.54 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 5c | 5,593$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.51 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…6931backed Yes | 3c | 5,327$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 3,734$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…2b7dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,427$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 2c | 3,030$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 178 | 5.6%10 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…9efdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,990$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 2,908$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,613$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…013bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,483$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 2c | 2,389$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,044$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 2,023$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,552$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 1,474$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c5…95c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,240$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…3634backed Yes | 5c | 990.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 231 | 7.4%17 W · 214 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 1c | 941.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 836.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 3c | 717.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 714.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 172 | 8.7%15 W · 157 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 614.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 599.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…fa62backed Yes | 4c | 559.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78a…9f65backed Yes | 3c | 486.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 133 | 12.8%17 W · 116 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 5c | 399.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 3c | 312.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a12…619ebacked Yes | 6c | 252.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d67fbacked Yes | 6c | 233.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ac…e753backed Yes | 6c | 175.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.