NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f25c6f5f94e179d644286ccad74ca2f780fe103d8a74f9dea8f2f032802ad00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Penguins, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,003,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,036,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,003,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 679 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Penguins | 40c | 329,636$130,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130,428.64 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 60c | 254,148$153,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,907.49 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…4654backed Penguins | 41c | 234,873$95,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,647.84 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Lightning | 59c | 150,000$88,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,500 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Lightning | 74c | 93,175$69,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,033.18 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Penguins | 40c | 78,162$31,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,264.75 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Penguins | 40c | 42,947$17,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,143.09 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning | 61c | 32,469$19,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,586.09 | 274 | 48.9%134 W · 140 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…43fcbacked Lightning | 60c | 24,680$14,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,872 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Lightning | 54c | 18,617$10,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,487.03 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Penguins | 41c | 15,000$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,150 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Lightning | 60c | 13,816$8,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,516.38 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Penguins | 39c | 13,500$5,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,264.99 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Lightning | 59c | 13,392$7,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,490.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…ac17backed Lightning | 61c | 12,567$7,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,901.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Lightning | 60c | 12,494$7,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,940.62 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 60c | 11,182$6,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,484.27 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked Penguins | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Penguins | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.99 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Penguins | 41c | 9,929$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Lightning | 60c | 9,110$5,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,644 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Lightning | 61c | 8,708$5,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.96 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Lightning | 61c | 8,597$5,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.37 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning | 61c | 8,400$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Lightning | 61c | 8,228$5,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.27 | 197 | 59.4%117 W · 80 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Lightning | 61c | 8,197$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.71 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Penguins | 40c | 8,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Lightning | 59c | 6,578$3,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.98 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…743fbacked Lightning | 60c | 6,513$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 61c | 6,435$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.14 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Penguins | 40c | 6,290$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…c0dbbacked Lightning | 61c | 6,221$3,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 60c | 6,168$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.24 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…3c6cbacked Lightning | 61c | 6,000$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning | 60c | 6,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 278 | 50.4%140 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning | 59c | 5,469$3,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.6 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…c6b5backed Lightning | 60c | 5,420$3,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…53a1backed Penguins | 39c | 5,364$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.81 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning | 60c | 5,140$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 61c | 5,083$3,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.52 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Lightning | 61c | 5,082$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.38 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Lightning | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Penguins | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Penguins | 39c | 4,999$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.8 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 60c | 4,546$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.44 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…a64cbacked Lightning | 59c | 4,305$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Penguins | 41c | 4,269$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.2 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Lightning | 61c | 3,934$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.43 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…d0e2backed Lightning | 60c | 3,840$2,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Lightning | 61c | 3,839$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.73 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Lightning | 59c | 3,333$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.53 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 60c | 3,295$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.65 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Penguins | 40c | 3,158$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.07 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning | 59c | 3,145$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.42 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Penguins | 13c | 3,100$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.99 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 47c | 3,088$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.86 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Lightning | 61c | 3,000$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Lightning | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Penguins | 40c | 3,000$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Lightning | 60c | 2,600$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Lightning | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked Lightning | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Lightning | 61c | 2,473$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.68 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…3462backed Lightning | 61c | 2,459$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Lightning | 52c | 2,376$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.24 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Penguins | 40c | 2,222$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.8 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Penguins | 18c | 2,200$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.28 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Lightning | 60c | 2,107$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Lightning | 61c | 2,000$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 457 | 49.2%225 W · 232 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Penguins | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…e0c0backed Lightning | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Lightning | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.99 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Lightning | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Penguins | 41c | 1,999$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.67 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 60c | 1,958$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.72 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,950$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Penguins | 40c | 1,788$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.04 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Lightning | 60c | 1,750$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.89 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Lightning | 69c | 1,666$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Penguins | 38c | 1,640$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.1 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +10.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Lightning | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Penguins | 13c | 1,591$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 185 | 20.5%38 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Lightning | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Lightning | 62c | 1,428$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.24 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Lightning | 61c | 1,425$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.9 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…a992backed Penguins | 29c | 1,370$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Lightning | 60c | 1,310$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.48 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…9a62backed Penguins | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Lightning | 71c | 1,272$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.36 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Lightning | 60c | 1,268$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.53 | 459 | 55.1%253 W · 206 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Lightning | 79c | 1,266$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Penguins | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Penguins | 31c | 1,246$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.16 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Lightning | 60c | 1,233$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.33 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Lightning | 70c | 1,230$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.55 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Lightning | 62c | 1,129$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.03 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Penguins | 13c | 1,125$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Lightningthis page
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.