NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5187f7f4488888825dbb4ff50bb45ac76e6c7db35cc808ae241039b1503524b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.99 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 63c | 2,598$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.26 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 63c | 730$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.44 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Over | 60c | 280.96$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 38c | 177.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 37c | 158.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…7594backed Over | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 63c | 99.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 64c | 57.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 40c | 50.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 48.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 31c | 38.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 77c | 37.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…1013backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Under | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 62c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. LightningLightning won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.