NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeefdbbdfdb18bf00b6c2e4e4e3ca5d9d9bf8555bffeb1c5260c9f016bfed4ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Penguins | 63c | 5,421$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420.7 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 37c | 1,480$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Penguins | 60c | 1,379$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.46 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Lightning | 37c | 871.27$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.9 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 40c | 806.48$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lightning | 40c | 482$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Penguins | 57c | 438.17$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Lightning | 40c | 291.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 38c | 266.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Penguins | 63c | 234.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 38c | 231.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 62c | 189.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Lightning | 40c | 179.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Lightning | 39c | 172.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 76c | 129.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Penguins | 63c | 125.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 40c | 121.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Lightning | 38c | 120.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 60c | 117.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…7799backed Lightning | 40c | 116.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Lightning | 38c | 112.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 24c | 104.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lightning | 64c | 96.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 62c | 80.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Penguins | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 40c | 70.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Penguins | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…064abacked Lightning | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Lightning | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Penguins | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Lightning | 32c | 37.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Penguins | 58c | 37.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Penguins | 67c | 33.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 61c | 33.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…f5a3backed Lightning | 76c | 31.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Penguins | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Penguins | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Penguins | 63c | 25.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Penguins | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Penguins | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Penguins | 76c | 18.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556a…8bf1backed Penguins | 61c | 16.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. LightningLightning won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.