TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$521,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,832 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes10c52,151$5,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,189.3963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c27,175$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.921,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes11c13,004$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.373330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes4c11,105$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2524815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes9c10,563$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.6157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes10c9,683$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.3556429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes5c7,971$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.073318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes7c7,478$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.8566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c7,370$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.561,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes9c7,287$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.311512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes19c6,543$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.8231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes8c6,198$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.7456817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No71c5,326$3,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.2554675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes5c5,217$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9629331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes11c5,129$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.7957621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No80c4,973$3,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.7316056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes21c4,867$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.0441017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes19c4,612$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.8213511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c4,454$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.3288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes15c4,186$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.7628526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes5c4,144$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1921213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes20c4,064$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes8c3,490$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.310216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes10c3,459$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.1348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes15c3,413$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2163821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes4c2,861$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6614625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes30c2,785$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid+81.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes14c2,669$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.1220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes12c2,665$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.0628016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes11c2,624$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7388017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c2,598$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.051,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c2,592$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.212,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes4c2,502$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1662412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c2,402$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes6c2,366$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.611656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No77c2,292$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.7162539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes23c2,176$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.711,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes10c2,121$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1129227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes14c2,076$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8734215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes24c2,012$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.6846137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes1c2,012$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66339.1%3 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes16c1,717$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.447022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…cb18backed Yes15c1,633$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.132729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes5c1,630$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3917324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes19c1,607$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c1,534$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.432727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes3c1,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes5c1,475$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3624710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes19c1,458$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.226211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes4c1,455$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46849.5%8 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+105%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes12c1,374$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4823019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes19c1,364$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.411918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes5c1,357$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0225944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes17c1,350$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5217628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes15c1,286$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.33517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes15c1,269$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes30c1,268$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38421034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No80c1,254$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.9515649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b2…6fd2backed Yes13c1,198$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes16c1,179$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.598925.8%23 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes8c1,167$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6513235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes29c1,120$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.453522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes3c1,119$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396325.4%16 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes13c1,116$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1710829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3350…2186backed Yes12c1,113$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.78130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c8…bfd5backed Yes8c1,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes5c1,076$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1231722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes15c1,060$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7527316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes7c1,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6732110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes2c950$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3512424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes9c943.68$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7413718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c941.33$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.0126167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes5c909.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.11,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdee0…5447backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…df80backed Yes8c903.84$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes8c903.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c888.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c883.45$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes6c873.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.954714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4683…a639backed Yes3c864.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes11c842$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.11827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes19c826.58$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010013%13 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes4c803.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes9c794.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8128534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes6c778.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3819726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes14c771.48$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9450828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c64…36b4backed Yes15c770$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.272832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes17c767.56$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.147544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes17c745.84$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.751389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes3c733.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4215128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes15c726.64$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10913116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes9c720.97$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9410917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes16c699.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.059726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes9c694.69$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb104…10c9backed Yes8c641.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.345024%12 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-42.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb88…41b0backed Yes5c640.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303030%9 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes7c636.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4733231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes19c634.92$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11942312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes3c621.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.