TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$420,038

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,038 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8be…6483backed No0c22,820$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes79c14,533$11,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,041.6566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No0c10,802$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.521220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes51c7,905$4,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,880.0246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes49c6,139$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.3163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes58c5,449$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.7221213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes35c4,607$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,977.4731621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes59c4,500$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.1557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes43c4,498$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.198425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No64c4,037$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.7254675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No31c3,736$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.721,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes63c3,704$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.0428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No31c3,428$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.3311512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c3,415$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.2776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes46c3,287$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.4441017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No36c3,165$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.336822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes53c2,681$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.9738828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes61c2,681$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.2720735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes61c2,613$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.62250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed No58c2,599$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.4810036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes34c2,500$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.5413511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes41c2,415$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.463330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No68c2,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No18c1,912$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.1518123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes30c1,910$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.3125023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes75c1,900$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.8514025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes40c1,896$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.2653522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa12…2a5dbacked No39c1,886$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes29c1,800$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.3550913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes41c1,800$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.8121034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes39c1,600$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.8688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c1,544$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.172,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4268…4815backed No42c1,529$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes32c1,462$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.9914137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes40c1,442$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.0119317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…e564backed Yes43c1,418$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.983627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c1,362$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.6531565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked No69c1,319$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.741,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No58c1,319$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.4916056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed No30c1,280$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.6934127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No33c1,245$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes38c1,200$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74717628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed No41c1,152$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…c9f0backed Yes63c1,111$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.112171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes77c1,100$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25831722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4132…1a31backed No64c1,094$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No10c1,089$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2617723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed No30c1,053$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.426823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b13…1227backed No39c1,053$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee0…5447backed Yes30c998.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.285139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes26c993.39$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.391,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes61c920.03$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.3650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes39c900.54$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.3788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No33c860.56$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.971507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes55c842$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.271827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes50c806.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6519550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes25c800.34$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.251,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x482d…750dbacked No27c745.46$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.965532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes69c724.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.7513116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes71c707.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.812347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…cb18backed Yes46c700$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3802729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes36c691.13$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.2157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes33c690$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.119141.4%79 W · 112 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes36c686.41$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.7341230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes69c681.01$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.112445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes50c668.3$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.3363821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes74c663.58$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1310536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa159…d2d3backed No42c653.6$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd96…5c2abacked No42c646.27$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes63c622.44$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.4428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No10c600$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.712424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes62c580.65$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.656532.3%21 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes46c573.31$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.9317728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes36c559.96$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.966420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes20c550$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44018321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes26c547.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.3534215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c83…e83ebacked Yes61c526.44$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes62c515.1$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.674122%9 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Yes61c512.42$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.422387%20 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+35.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd675…5cdebacked Yes79c507.01$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.473534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+105.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes60c501.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.586747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes36c500.05$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.2818822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd26a…732cbacked Yes30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35012435.5%44 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1507028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2921233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes57c500$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21322824.1%55 W · 173 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3408236.6%30 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No28c498.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4914219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes46c497.53$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.8411918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c494.07$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.526167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes52c493.18$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.196719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes41c488.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.217825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe703…7e4fbacked No39c484.59$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes55c470.64$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8252619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x686d…9eb4backed Yes71c464.29$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.291637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes42c451.98$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.377022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed No45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.45541.8%23 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed No25c438.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0318939.2%74 W · 115 L+15.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes59c436.13$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8129331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.