Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x363fe1c648ec945eb0ad47a0d38476678525acdce29b513743647b4b5a7f4697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $420,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8be…6483backed No | 0c | 22,820$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 14,533$11,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,041.65 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 0c | 10,802$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 51c | 7,905$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880.02 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 49c | 6,139$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157.31 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 58c | 5,449$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.72 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 35c | 4,607$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.47 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 59c | 4,500$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.15 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 43c | 4,498$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.19 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 64c | 4,037$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.72 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 31c | 3,736$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.72 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 63c | 3,704$2,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.04 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 31c | 3,428$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.33 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 3,415$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.27 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 46c | 3,287$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.44 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed No | 36c | 3,165$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.33 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 53c | 2,681$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.97 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 61c | 2,681$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.27 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 61c | 2,613$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 58c | 2,599$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.48 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,500$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.54 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,415$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.46 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 68c | 2,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 18c | 1,912$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.15 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 30c | 1,910$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.31 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 75c | 1,900$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.85 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 40c | 1,896$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.26 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa12…2a5dbacked No | 39c | 1,886$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,800$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.35 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 41c | 1,800$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.81 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 39c | 1,600$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.86 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 1,544$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.17 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…4815backed No | 42c | 1,529$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 32c | 1,462$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.99 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 40c | 1,442$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.01 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…e564backed Yes | 43c | 1,418$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.98 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 1,362$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.65 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 69c | 1,319$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.74 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 58c | 1,319$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.49 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed No | 30c | 1,280$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 33c | 1,245$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.18 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 38c | 1,200$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…30d5backed No | 41c | 1,152$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 63c | 1,111$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.11 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 77c | 1,100$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1a31backed No | 64c | 1,094$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 10c | 1,089$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed No | 30c | 1,053$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.42 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…1227backed No | 39c | 1,053$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 30c | 998.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.28 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 26c | 993.39$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.39 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 61c | 920.03$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 39c | 900.54$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.37 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 860.56$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.97 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 55c | 842$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 806.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.65 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 25c | 800.34$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.25 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482d…750dbacked No | 27c | 745.46$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 69c | 724.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.75 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4239…5dafbacked Yes | 71c | 707.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…cb18backed Yes | 46c | 700$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 36c | 691.13$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.21 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 33c | 690$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.1 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 36c | 686.41$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.73 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 69c | 681.01$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 50c | 668.3$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.33 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 74c | 663.58$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…d2d3backed No | 42c | 653.6$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd96…5c2abacked No | 42c | 646.27$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 63c | 622.44$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 10c | 600$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 62c | 580.65$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.65 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 46c | 573.31$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.93 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 36c | 559.96$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.96 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 20c | 550$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 26c | 547.61$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.35 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…e83ebacked Yes | 61c | 526.44$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 62c | 515.1$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.67 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 61c | 512.42$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 79c | 507.01$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 60c | 501.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.58 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 36c | 500.05$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.28 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…732cbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 57c | 500$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 28c | 498.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 46c | 497.53$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.84 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 494.07$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.5 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 52c | 493.18$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.19 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 41c | 488.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.21 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…7e4fbacked No | 39c | 484.59$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 470.64$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…9eb4backed Yes | 71c | 464.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 42c | 451.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.37 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed No | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0ae3backed No | 25c | 438.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 59c | 436.13$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.81 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.