Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752e34463863f7a30df948a7a6423487940e070fb030361553e3c9a1ce6a3925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 35,619$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.38 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 25,518$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.39 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 0c | 17,295$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 22c | 9,969$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.83 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 20c | 7,006$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.89 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 74c | 6,793$5,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.96 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 21c | 6,711$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.26 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 25c | 6,266$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.71 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 19c | 6,079$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.12 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 30c | 5,724$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.94 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 19c | 5,455$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.49 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 32c | 5,090$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.45 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 4,768$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.71 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 19c | 4,700$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.82 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 22c | 4,241$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.07 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,426$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.31 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 16c | 3,258$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 65c | 2,592$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.11 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 78c | 2,563$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.04 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…e564backed Yes | 34c | 2,523$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.51 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,500$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.51 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 17c | 2,485$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.37 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed Yes | 25c | 2,445$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,400$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.53 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,369$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.53 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 17c | 2,335$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 2,334$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.16 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…1efebacked Yes | 18c | 2,300$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 11c | 2,167$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 20c | 2,130$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,112$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.29 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 74c | 2,073$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.73 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 76c | 1,926$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.32 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,900$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.54 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,710$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 14c | 1,700$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.01 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 29c | 1,636$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.67 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 31c | 1,605$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.51 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 30c | 1,566$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.66 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Yes | 3c | 1,540$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,464$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 27c | 1,374$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.67 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 1,370$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.55 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 11c | 1,284$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,205$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 10c | 1,196$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,194$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed Yes | 15c | 1,123$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,108$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.67 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 38c | 1,080$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.27 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…ad5bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,077$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 18c | 1,070$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 11c | 1,016$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 17c | 999.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 9c | 999.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes | 6c | 991.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 20c | 990.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…cd25backed Yes | 24c | 973.4$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.21 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 921.67$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.37 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 20c | 920.04$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.4 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 13c | 900.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 28c | 899.64$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 18c | 897.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 25c | 896.77$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 41c | 888.12$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.54 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 22c | 885.6$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 2c | 870.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 26c | 861.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 23c | 846.52$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Yes | 22c | 831.9$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.46 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 30c | 799.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.99 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 18c | 764.87$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 14c | 730$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…9ee5backed No | 78c | 699.98$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 78c | 692.4$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…77e1backed Yes | 28c | 634.3$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…a714backed Yes | 19c | 631.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…5be3backed Yes | 30c | 608.38$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…732cbacked Yes | 18c | 600$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…fdebbacked Yes | 35c | 579.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…785abacked Yes | 3c | 569.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 569.39$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.29 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…b128backed No | 75c | 565$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 20c | 540$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 21c | 535.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 25c | 527.42$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.