TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$292,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,768 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedc8…a743backed Yes0c13,178$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3924815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…ce41backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed Yes0c7,634$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes0c7,581$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1632110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes1c6,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes0c5,677$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8133231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes1c4,874$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9214625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c4,820$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.286097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes3c4,769$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.971507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes5c4,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes11c4,163$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.461,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes1c4,015$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c3,847$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.11,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes4c3,677$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2678111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes4c3,623$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.321656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes1c3,512$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0732015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes4c3,232$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0426211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes11c3,232$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1813511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes11c3,100$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…9ce9backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes1c2,914$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9217324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…df80backed Yes2c2,874$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…9c47backed Yes1c2,837$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes4c2,760$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.21,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,558$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.982,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,445$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.411,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes12c2,223$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.77826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes6c2,108$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9534215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes6c2,092$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1729227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes13c2,003$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.422610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,941$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.332727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes1c1,898$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.323318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c1,818$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.172,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked Yes1c1,774$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c1,484$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5156817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Yes3c1,454$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.21540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ef…b12fbacked Yes1c1,382$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes6c1,376$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8448819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed Yes3c1,335$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9315820.9%33 W · 125 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes7c1,331$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes2c1,108$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4412216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes2c999.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5731722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes20c923.07$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2827316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes26c863.51$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0963821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes13c849.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.528526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes2c779.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.141017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes13c750.13$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c635$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12754675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes11c633.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.695115.7%8 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes11c629.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.63128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010013%13 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes7c594.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4111428.9%33 W · 81 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes7c593.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes7c570.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes4c556.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes13c504.54$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5921816.1%35 W · 183 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.161,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508236.6%30 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0fc…88b1backed Yes12c499.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.163221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes26c440.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11418321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes11c394.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.531,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes17c321.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1834425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes7c263.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4341230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes14c229.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.36621.2%14 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes13c224.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x773b…640ebacked Yes14c209.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306116.4%10 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a5…8f69backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes13c199.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.976224.2%15 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+105.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50c3…a567backed Yes12c191.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.995418.5%10 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes14c166.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.626224.2%15 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes15c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225650%28 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+67.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…d766backed Yes20c147.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes10c140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+169.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes12c139.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1430110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86325.4%16 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eee…5037backed Yes15c115.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1873215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6a…ebe3backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2997…0389backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+113.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x280b…d619backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103540%14 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x061f…97abbacked Yes11c99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe213…efbbbacked Yes13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes12c88.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes14c74.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.379427.7%26 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes14c74.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3719726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71f…15afbacked Yes17c59.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid+35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db5…701ebacked No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.618679.1%68 W · 18 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.