Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed503c918f797d657ffb0e413db04dfd3628bfadb143495c6f27a3970bdc160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $292,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,768 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 0c | 13,178$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…ce41backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 0c | 7,634$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 0c | 7,581$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 0c | 5,677$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 1c | 4,874$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,820$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 4,769$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 11c | 4,163$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.46 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 1c | 4,015$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 3,847$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 3,677$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes | 4c | 3,623$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 165 | 6.7%11 W · 154 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,512$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,232$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,232$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.18 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 11c | 3,100$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…9ce9backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 1c | 2,914$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…df80backed Yes | 2c | 2,874$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…9c47backed Yes | 1c | 2,837$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 2,760$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,558$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,445$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 12c | 2,223$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 2,108$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 6c | 2,092$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 13c | 2,003$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.4 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,941$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,898$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 1,818$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.17 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,774$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 1,484$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,454$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…b12fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,382$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 6c | 1,376$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 3c | 1,335$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,331$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 20c | 923.07$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.28 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 26c | 863.51$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 13c | 849.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 779.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 13c | 750.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 635$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 11c | 633.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…4f1bbacked Yes | 11c | 629.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…7155backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 7c | 594.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 593.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 570.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…1af9backed Yes | 4c | 556.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 13c | 504.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…88b1backed Yes | 12c | 499.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 26c | 440.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 394.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 17c | 321.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 7c | 263.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes | 14c | 229.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 13c | 224.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…640ebacked Yes | 14c | 209.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…8f69backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 13c | 199.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…a567backed Yes | 12c | 191.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 14c | 166.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…d766backed Yes | 20c | 147.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes | 10c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 12c | 139.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eee…5037backed Yes | 15c | 115.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6a…ebe3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0389backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…d619backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…97abbacked Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe213…efbbbacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 12c | 88.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1819backed Yes | 14c | 74.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 14c | 74.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…15afbacked Yes | 17c | 59.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 86 | 79.1%68 W · 18 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.