Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06dd14763f6fa51c88e441bb18c40d9f9e54f09cef9482d29065d0cd8e539995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,271 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 56,797$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.59 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 15,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 0c | 14,598$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…0d6abacked Yes | 16c | 12,000$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 9,695$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.78 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 9,647$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 10c | 8,159$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.48 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 1c | 7,465$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 1c | 7,352$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,238$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 1c | 6,165$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,797$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 7c | 4,800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.15 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 11c | 4,615$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.73 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…a438backed Yes | 0c | 4,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 3,989$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,982$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 18c | 3,903$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.52 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,425$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 4c | 3,366$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 7c | 3,289$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 3,216$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,037$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 3c | 2,743$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 2,463$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.81 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,256$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 4c | 2,191$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 2,124$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 2,063$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,873$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 10c | 1,754$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 8c | 1,709$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,611$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,573$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,437$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,404$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 1,251$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,085$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…8449backed Yes | 10c | 994.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 970.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 3c | 920.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 7c | 842$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c1…7237backed Yes | 5c | 824.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 12c | 822.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 7c | 800$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 741.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 740.01$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 8c | 724.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 1c | 719.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 718.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…9ee5backed Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 595.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes | 2c | 590.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…2186backed Yes | 9c | 568.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…de86backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 4c | 501.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…1001backed Yes | 3c | 500.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 26c | 475.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 8c | 421.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…5b46backed Yes | 11c | 406.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 14c | 401.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 164 | 20.7%34 W · 130 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…1c3cbacked Yes | 7c | 395.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 6c | 380.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 6c | 360.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed Yes | 14c | 322.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 19c | 318.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 17c | 300.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes | 15c | 299.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…e9a4backed Yes | 12c | 293.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…748fbacked No | 77c | 280$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…2c3dbacked Yes | 7c | 276.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…8da3backed Yes | 8c | 275.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…c9d0backed Yes | 24c | 262.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…30c6backed Yes | 5c | 256.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 21c | 242.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 9c | 237.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 7c | 231.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 9c | 209.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 5.9%7 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 8c | 191.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 17c | 185.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…2e6fbacked Yes | 24c | 183.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…af5fbacked Yes | 25c | 179.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 15c | 171.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.