TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Bravesof Athletics, Atlanta Braves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$237,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,185 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves66c25,888$17,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,749.4110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Athletics29c23,899$6,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,941.312754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Atlanta Braves67c16,772$11,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,534.7955053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Athletics30c12,455$3,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,773.119666.7%64 W · 32 L+16.4wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics14c8,606$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2312,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Atlanta Braves73c8,315$6,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.2321656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics33c6,332$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.481,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics21c5,998$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.598,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Athletics32c5,739$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.423538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Atlanta Braves76c5,733$4,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.7734164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Athletics32c5,638$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.371050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Athletics9c5,541$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7515840.5%64 W · 94 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…d41cbacked Atlanta Braves72c5,494$3,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.613855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Atlanta Braves70c5,289$3,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.8315550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Atlanta Braves70c5,052$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.965050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Athletics33c5,045$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Athletics33c4,500$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.7216347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…b163backed Atlanta Braves66c4,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.961163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Atlanta Braves76c3,965$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.2818056.1%101 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Atlanta Braves68c3,915$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.0932348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Athletics2c3,019$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4723036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb05…4e1bbacked Atlanta Braves73c2,889$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Athletics30c2,859$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Athletics34c2,665$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.147051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics33c2,543$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.934,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Atlanta Braves70c2,376$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.191,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics29c2,192$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.461,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Athletics8c2,182$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6585235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics29c2,154$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.481,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Athletics34c2,069$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.6239351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Athletics2c2,011$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Athletics34c1,992$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.2725349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…0c02backed Atlanta Braves74c1,779$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Athletics34c1,685$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.3134452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked Athletics34c1,672$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.274231%13 W · 29 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Athletics34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.959843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Athletics33c1,454$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.910451%53 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Atlanta Braves68c1,442$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.552040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics29c1,409$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.726,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2002…de36backed Atlanta Braves70c1,371$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.18887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick63cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Atlanta Braves67c1,286$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.1570735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Athletics34c1,252$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4424348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Athletics33c1,163$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8821146.4%98 W · 113 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Atlanta Braves65c1,062$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.714562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Athletics29c991.6$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4861346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf020…cddbbacked Athletics10c965.12$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.23922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Athletics5c943.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.152218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Athletics3c941.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5440629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Athletics31c886.97$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4328646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a9…5e9ebacked Athletics27c882.14$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.071353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Atlanta Braves67c778.79$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.21,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Athletics35c741.34$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.4722753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8924…3b00backed Atlanta Braves69c729.59$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.572450%12 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Atlanta Braves66c620.29$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.91,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Athletics33c600$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19535245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Athletics34c598.07$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.227146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics28c587$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.361,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Athletics28c587$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.361,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics34c585.84$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1978146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Athletics4c585$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7196133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics21c524.05$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.931,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Athletics17c517.34$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8413742.3%58 W · 79 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Atlanta Braves72c501.43$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.414047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Athletics12c484.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3211331.9%36 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Athletics10c476.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.691,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Athletics34c431.09$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.857950.6%40 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Athletics30c415.13$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5419540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves70c412.52$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Athletics28c404.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.859219.6%18 W · 74 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Athletics33c387.97$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0344643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Atlanta Braves68c360.59$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.391,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Atlanta Braves71c359.83$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3581257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b14…5301backed Athletics12c337.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.042722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Athletics30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.88558.8%50 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Atlanta Braves71c309.19$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8112745.7%58 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb03b…a5dfbacked Athletics38c303.86$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.472133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4342…5797backed Atlanta Braves65c301.3$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.518960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves67c300.03$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Athletics16c296.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.481,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked Athletics33c290.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.983745.9%17 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Athletics34c281.42$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5315847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Atlanta Braves68c277.29$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8abd…29a8backed Atlanta Braves72c273.11$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Atlanta Braves72c273.11$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4713361.7%82 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Athletics32c263.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4675049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Athletics29c260.49$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1516351.5%84 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Athletics32c245.45$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.541338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Atlanta Braves70c244.84$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.763262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed Atlanta Braves68c244.72$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3115857%90 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Athletics34c240.51$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6329450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Braves68c235.39$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Atlanta Braves66c231.39$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.37962%49 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Atlanta Braves70c222.07$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6237747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Athletics7c214.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Athletics34c212.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.038246.3%38 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed Atlanta Braves73c202.22$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.652969%20 W · 9 L+5.8wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+79.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Athletics32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6411647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Athletics33c199.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9968846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Atlanta Braves68c196.16$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.773,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…bd04backed Atlanta Braves71c193.75$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.194266.7%28 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.