MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98054a554331d418f63683ffe6bf5e69ba262205c218a9698cb14658d1272204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Under | 58c | 24,809$14,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,419.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 42c | 15,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7e…5fddbacked Over | 42c | 11,409$4,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,791.64 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 58c | 5,707$3,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.24 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 3,223$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.08 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 57c | 2,600$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 42c | 2,361$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.61 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.24 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 1,428$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 55c | 1,115$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.74 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 999.99$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 985.18$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.18 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 44c | 578.32$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…3657backed Over | 43c | 531.19$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Over | 43c | 513.6$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 43c | 454.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.62 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 59c | 426.05$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.11 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 57c | 408.48$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.65 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 42c | 380.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 59c | 331.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.27 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 46c | 273$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 46c | 273$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 58c | 241.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 67c | 201.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 41c | 199.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 45c | 180.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 42c | 166.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 44c | 162.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Over | 45c | 156.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 45c | 147.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Over | 43c | 93.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 79.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 55c | 74.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 55.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 42c | 53.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 58c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 58c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 58c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 58c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 37.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…3ce9backed Under | 55c | 35.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 39c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Under | 58c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Athletics vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.