NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eedcc5e21529de58e747d2d1720e839b58d81f5e24e6b9b84694dea66907006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 4,788$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 4,759$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.62 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 3,608$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 2,860$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.66 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 2,038$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.44 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 47c | 1,251$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.93 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 1,182$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.34 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 47c | 446$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 367.62$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 312.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…bc57backed Under | 47c | 103.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 24c | 69.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…a519backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 47c | 32.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Under | 46c | 31.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 29.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Under | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 41c | 25.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 56c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…4d2dbacked Over | 57c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Grizzlies won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kyle Anderson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Grizzlies won
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.