TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,306 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under50c12,000$6,000 inWon+$6,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c7,185$3,592 inLost-$3,592.259,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Over50c2,880$1,440 inLost-$1,44041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over50c2,548$1,274 inLost-$1,2742,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c1,221$611 inWon+$610.52,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c1,200$600 inLost-$6002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Over4c493.4$20 inLost-$19.7429810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over50c200$100 inLost-$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under52c184.38$96 inWon+$88.2283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over30c158.2$47 inLost-$46.883,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e11…644abacked Under66c150.69$100 inWon+$50.691457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over50c129.08$65 inLost-$65.053,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Under51c117.65$60 inWon+$57.6521854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c108.23$54 inLost-$53.813,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over39c97.04$38 inLost-$37.765,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c87.2$48 inWon+$39.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Over50c80$40 inLost-$407855.1%43 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c65.05$33 inLost-$32.684,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under62c55$34 inWon+$20.851,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over38c50$19 inLost-$1943246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c47.06$23 inWon+$243,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under50c43.56$22 inWon+$21.7359141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under74c40$29 inWon+$10.61,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under69c28$19 inWon+$8.6817243%74 W · 98 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over51c27.45$14 inLost-$1418150.3%91 W · 90 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.