Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02309ad117625f1cc19d997d4db9e929feea7ef8bf41631a07e286d5053d6712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida State Seminolesof Virginia Cavaliers, Florida State Seminoles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 3,466$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.37 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Florida State Seminoles | 48c | 3,300$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Florida State Seminoles | 49c | 1,637$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.73 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 48c | 1,551$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.49 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 1,222$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.14 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 46c | 1,005$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.97 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 716.97$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 716.97$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e466backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 384.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Florida State Seminoles | 48c | 153.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fb…b328backed Virginia Cavaliers | 41c | 143$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Florida State Seminoles | 64c | 88.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…a519backed Florida State Seminoles | 48c | 82.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 68.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Florida State Seminoles | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Florida State Seminoles | 51c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)this page
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State SeminolesVirginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 151.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 152.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.